Thursday, October 1, 2009

Experts' take: Time to exit fundamentally weak stocks

It may well be tempting to be carried away by the upswing in stock prices over the past few months but increasingly, investment advisors and financial planners are advising retail investors to exit from fundamentally weak stocks as well as mutual fund schemes.

Says financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala: “In fact, you can use this opportunity to rid your portfolio of stocks that do not add value. If you are stuck in stocks and mutual funds
that are not fundamentally strong and have been looking for the right time to exit, this is the time.”

His views are echoed by Alok Ranjan, head — PMS, Way2Wealth who says investors could consider booking profits in mid-cap and small-cap stocks that have run up without fundamentals while holding on to large-cap stocks and mutual funds. “One could be in cash of 15%, and any sharp correction could be used to buy into fundamentally strong companies. With results season around the corner, investors should exit fundamentally weak companies,” is what he is advising investors.

Ideally, for retail investors with a long-term view, sticking to a fixed asset allocation — devised after taking into account their goals and risk profile — could be the best approach to adopt. “If our clients are overweight in equities due to the market rally at this point of time, they may reduce the exposure in equities in accordance with their asset allocation,” according to Pankaj Narain, head — private clients, banking and investments at Deutsche Bank India.

Mr Mashruwalla says, if an investor has decided on an asset allocation ratio of 60:40 (equity: debt), and the equity component has swelled to 75% due to the market surge, they could look at liquidating part of their equity portfolio. However, if the deviation is merely 5-10%, there may not be any need to rebalance the portfolio.

On the other hand, if investors are underweight on equities, financial planners say they could invest in the market in a phased manner. And for those investing in mutual funds, opting for the SIP route is the ideal method to adopt, they opine. “The current rally in market is due to excess liquidity, though it is supplemented by the strong economic fundamentals. Investors should be cautious hereafter, and with every 100 point rise in Nifty, there should be gradual profit booking,” suggests RL Narayanan, vice-president, equity institutional sales, Bonanza Portfolio.

Also, keeping an eye on the evolving scenario and taking decisions accordingly could be the key to building a healthy portfolio. “At current levels, valuations definitely are looking stretched, though liquidity can drive it further up. Investors clearly need to take 15-20% off the table. The biggest risk is rising inflation, due to which at some point in time, RBI will be forced to raise interest rates. If that happens, markets will take a closer look at valuations and correct,” cautions AV Srikanth, executive director of Anand Rathi Private Wealth Management.

Market likely to be choppy, but traders see no major correction

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Equities may remain choppy in the shortened trading week ahead, in the absence of any major trigger for sharp movements either sides.
Despite concerns about stock prices being stretched, after more than doubling since March, market participants do not see any significant declines, as expectations of a correction in recent weeks have resulted in a sizeable creation of short-positions in futures and options.

Traders are likely to reverse these short-positions on every drop to lock in profits, thereby cushioning any major fall near-term, they said. Financial markets will be shut on Monday and Friday due to Dassera and Gandhi Jayanti, respectively.

“I am optimistically cautious about India, because, so far, there is nothing that indicates that the recent rally is not sustainable,” said Angus W Stening, CEO-Asia, Pioneer Investments Management. “Valuations of Indian equities
at these levels are still not near their historic higher, but they are not cheap either,” he added.

Analysts estimate that the Sensex is trading at roughly 15 times 2009-10 expected earnings. At the peak of the bull run in 2007, the index traded at over 18 times future earnings estimates. Pessimists argue that existing valuations are not comparable with that in 2007, as India economic growth then was 8-9%, while now, it does not exceed 6%.

Market participants said the July-September quarter earnings season next month will help investors judge whether corporate earnings growth has revived or not. With no key disappointments in companies’ earnings in the April-June quarter, there are expectations of an improvement in the current quarter.

After the recent rally in software shares recently, sparked by reports of top companies looking to hike salaries, a section of the market has turned pessimistic about the sector. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, in a recent report, reiterated its ‘underperform’ rating on the sector. The bank said, “The market will be disappointed in the near term on margins, and in the longer term, on revenue growth trajectory.”

Sensex set for crackling Diwali

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September ,for Dalal Street investors, was an unusually good month, raising hopes of a better Diwali in October after two consecutive
years of subdued celebrations.

During the month, sensex gained in 14 of the 20 session and added 1,461 points, or 9.3%, to 17,127. Brokers and dealers admitted that much of these gains came on the back of liquidity, the inflow of money from abroad.

BSE data showed that so far this month net buying by FIIs in the secondary market alone was at a whopping Rs 18,200 crore, nearly $4 billion . On Wednesday alone, FIIs net bought stocks worth over Rs 1,000 crore. Sebi data showed net FII buying in 2009 at $12.2 billion, the second highest yearly inflow ever for the Indian market.

However, going forward there could be some correction, market players said. “October is a short month, and one would be wary of the latest move in the index, which has been very fast,’’ said head of a domestic brokerage.

“Redemption pressure on hedge funds has been increasing as the one year moratorium since last October is just getting over. Based on cues from the US, one would not be surprised to see a correction of about 10%, to say 4,600 nifty by end of October , which is healthy in our view,’’ the brokerage head added. On Wednesday, nifty ended at 5,084. The day’s session saw banking stocks rallying ahead of most.

Dealers said RBI’s decision to keep government borrowing within the limits indicated at the start of the fiscal year boosted confidence that the benchmark yield on 10-year government securities, which determines the interest rate
in the economy, might not rise much. While SBI ended 5% higher at Rs 2,196, it also scaled a new 52-week high level during the day. ICICI Bank too rallied, closing 4.6% higher at Rs 905 and HDFC Bank ended 2.1% up at Rs 1,642. BSE’s banking index ended 3.7% higher.

Despite the day’s strong gains, on BSE, winners outnumbered laggards by a narrow margin. Compared to 1,598 advances, there were 1,183 declines. With the Bharti Airtel-MTN deal off and the US markets showing weakness in early trades, the market could witness some correction on Thursday.

Those who didn't panic made money


'Don't Panic' is the maxim from Douglas Adams's Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. It could as well be the survival mantra on Dalal
Street. Chances are that those who had the nerve to stay put in the market, when it plunged in the aftermath of the financial crisis, are richer now.

Consider this: On September 26, 2007, the sensex had for the first time gone over the 17,000 mark. Over the next seven months, it crossed several milestones to top 21,000 in early-January 2008. But within the next 10 months, it had lost nearly twothird of its value to a multiyear low of 7,700 in late October of the year. In less than a year from then, the yo-yo is back at 17,000. However, investors' wealth, measured by BSE's market capitalisation, is now Rs 6 lakh crore more than what it was when the sensex had crossed the 17,000 mark earlier.

Additionally, 20 of the 30 stocks that are represented in the sensex are at a higher level than they were in September 2007. And if one had put Rs 1 lakh in each of the those 30 elite stocks, despite the volatilities and crashes of the last two years, they would still be richer by about Rs 4 lakh, or 13%. Remember, since we are considering a period of over a year, this gain is tax free. So keeping faith in the long term power of Dalal Street does have its rewards.

While the past few months have been unusually good — sensex has more than doubled in a little over six months — the road ahead too looks relatively free of unknown financial landmines. ‘‘There are at least four reasons why we believe the Indian market will give strong returns over the longer run,'' said Ved Prakash Chaturvedi, MD, Tata Mutual Fund. ‘‘ Firstly, its strong resilience (during the financial crisis) has boosted the faith of overseas investors in our economy. Secondly , it is now clear that some of the emerging markets will outperform most others and India is among those outperformers,'' Chaturvedi said.

Two other reasons are, stronger belief in India's domestic market and a higher level of confidence in the continuity of the economic policy because of a stable government at the centre, the Tata MF chief said. In September 2007, when sensex had crossed the 17,000-level for the first time, the uncertainties of a general election were just round the corner, as were the fears of discontinuation of economic policies if the then incumbent government was sent packing in the polls.

Technically too, the markets are on a strong footing. At 17,000, the sensex has crossed an important psychological and technical level . Similarly, the nifty crossed the 5,030 level decisively.

‘‘ In all likelihood sensex will move to 17,300 and most likely to 17,500, based on futures and options data. The corresponding nifty levels are 5,200 and 5,250,'' said Amitabh Chakraborty, president-equities , Religare Capital Markets. A correction in market place thereafter could be expected, he said.

Is the market nearing bubble zone?

After two days of mild correction, bulls on Dalal Street are back in business with the markets soaring again. However, with each progressive rise
in benchmark indices, the market appears to be close to the bubble zone. Based on Wednesday’s closing price, the NSE Nifty Index is now trading at a price to earning multiple of nearly 23.

This is just a notch below the all time Price Earnings (PE) multiple of close to 28 witnessed at the peak of the previous stock market booms in early 2000 and late 2008. Could this be history repeating itself?

This should not come as a surprise to old timers on the Street. Financial markets have a tendency to oscillate around historical means. This is evident in the chart above where we have plotted Nifty movements during the last 10 years against corresponding ups and down in its price to earning multiples. As the chart shows, Indian equity markets have a history of hitting extremes in terms of valuations.

Currently, the Nifty is trading at close to 23 times that of earnings per share (based on the earnings of companies that comprise 50 stock Nifty) in the last four trailing quarters. This is around 25% higher than the Nifty 10-year average (median) valuations of around 16-17 times preceding year’s earnings. Only twice in the last 10 years has Nifty been more valuable and both these occasions — the dotcom boom of 2000 and the credit boom of late 2007 — turned out to be bubbles that burst. On six other occasions, which may be described as normal times, the market has faced a strong resistance at a P/E multiple of around 20 and corrected subsequently.

However, bulls never give up without a decent fight. In early 2004, the tussle between the bulls and the bear dragged on for nearly four months. Finally, bears had the upper hand and the market tanked by close to 30% and valuations were low enough to fuel accumulation that set the stage for a bull run. A similar duel was seen in late 2006 and early 2007.

At its peak in October 2006, the market’s PE multiple touched 22 when Nifty crossed 4200. The market is once again poised at a similar juncture. The PE multiple appears to be entering the bubble zone. There are only two outcomes from here — either the market corrects so that valuations are back to the historical averages, or bulls gain full control of the street and the valuations enter the bubble zone. While both outcomes are equally plausible, bulls will need some bit of help from the boardrooms of India Inc besides purchasing power (or liquidity).

Earnings growth need to pick up fast, otherwise the valuation will keep on getting dearer, pushing the market closer to the bubble zone. However, the earnings outlook is far from rosy. Earnings growth in the June 2009 quarter was driven by operational leverages in the form lower raw material and finance cost. This will run its course by the September 2009 quarter. After which the earnings growth will be driven by revenue (read demand) growth, which will be tougher to achieve.

Realty stocks bounce back on FII power



Boosted by the confidence shown by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the once beaten-down real estate sector has witnessed a resurgence at the stock market even as concerns on their ability to deliver and the quality of their books of accounts linger in the air.

In the rally since March 9, when BSE's benchmark Sensex hit a low of 8,160, the real estate sector has led from the front. While Sensex at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) rose by 107 per cent, the realty index grew by 246 per cent, highest among all sectoral indices at BSE.

“The shortage of housing units in India is leading to demand coming back,” said Aseem Dhru, CEO, HDFC Securities. “Since real estate precedes other form of growth in a growing economy, lot of hot money is coming into these stocks.”

Flush with land banks, Indian real estate companies crumbled in 2008 when credit tightened and it turned hard for them to go ahead with the ongoing projects. In the process they piled up huge debt. But when the liquidity eased they used the qualified institutional placement (QIP) route to sell shares in order to spruce up their balance sheet and reduce debt.

“As the real estate companies managed to raise funds through QIP, investors interest got stronger,” said Vinay Gairola of Atlantis Investments.

And with economy back on growth path, the FIIs have resurrected their faith into these companies.

Real estate has been at the forefront of this rally because the sector saw huge value erosion in 2008 and it was in the radar of most managers as there were early signs of revival in real estate companies in form of restructuring of balance sheet,” said Gairola.

Till 2006, FIIs had zero exposure to the Indian real estate sector and it has grown significantly since then.

As of now the total FII exposure to the Indian real estate sector stands at around $ 7.5 billion (Rs 36,750 crore) and three-fourths of the total FII investment this year has gone to real estate, banking, engineering and oil and gas sectors,” said a market expert, who did not wish to be named.

Even as the money continues to flow into the realty sector, market players say that the concerns do exist.

“Investors still face challenge on the valuations front and concerns on impact of interest rate, regulatory changes and large size of unorganised players do exist,” said Gairola.


Bulls on rampage again

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Mushrooming inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and a strong results expectation for the second quarter helped the Sensex to continue on the upswing as it breached the 17,000 mark after 16 months on Wednesday.

The Sensex rose 1.6 per cent or 274 points to close at 17,127, while the more broadbased NSE Nifty rose 1.5 per cent or 77 points to close at 5,084.

Riding the momentum, the initial public offering (IPO) of Oil India Ltd saw a strong listing after a dismal performance of other high-profile IPOs such as NHPC and Adani Power.

Globally, India was the world’s biggest gainer on Wednesday. With FIIs investing more than Rs 64,000 crore since March 2009 into the Indian equity markets, the Sensex left behind most of the markets across the world in terms of return. Sensex return stands at 110 per cent since March 9 when it closed at a low of 8,160.

While FIIs movement is one factor, experts feel that the market is expecting a good result which has also resulted into this fast movement at the Sensex.

“The market has factored in a strong result for the second quarter especially for the banking sector which is expected to see a drop in its non-performing asset amidst a reviving economic situation,” said Amitabh Chakraborty, president equities, Religare Enterprises.

As Sensex crossed 17,000 mark on Wednesday, the banking and auto indices rose the most at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), at 3.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively.

It is not just the benchmark index that has risen. Seven of 10 companies outperformed the Sensex, with only three showing negative returns. Jindal South West, the biggest gainer among the broader BSE 500, rose over 700 per cent.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

10 stocks you wish you had bought

Before you get all charged up on reading that we're about to talk about the 10 stocks that are the best in India, wait! How can we be talking of the 'best' stocks when we have seen the 'worst' all around us, for so many months now?

You know for a fact that the BSE-Sensex is still down 25 per cent since hitting its all time high in January 2008. But do you know that the index is still 259 per cent up since its levels 10 years back?

So just by staying invested in the markets, you would have multiplied your money 3.5 times over.

And this is just about the broader index, which is made up of large cap stocks that anyways do not rise in multiples. After all, it's difficult for companies with market capitalisation of $10 billion to double fast.

But what about a company that has a market capitalisation of just around $0.1 million, or at an exchange rate of 45 to the dollar, just about Rs 37 lakh?

It doesn't take much to double or triple, right?

Yes, it doesn't. Or what would justify the fact that while the Sensex has returned 259 per cent in the last 10 years, there are numerous stocks that have churned out returns of more than 10,000 per cent over this period.

Seeing the table below, you will know pretty rapidly that the best way to make money in the market is to invest for the long term.

What the table doesn't show is that all these stocks have been volatile like any other stock in the market, and you need to recognise that volatility is part of the ride.

Now, when you commit to the long term, you quickly discover that the stocks that offer the best returns today were not really the well-known, widely owned names of those times. How many of you had heard of Matrix Labs or Praj then? Or for that matter how many really took Unitech seriously?

So, the trait that sets these stocks apart is that they were small companies with very small market capitalisation. And although companies such as Unitech, Matrix Labs and Praj are much bigger in terms of size and market cap today, tracked and owned by big institutional investors, there are quite a few small cap stocks waiting in the wings, doing all they can to become the next multi baggers.

So you now know for the fact that finding small stocks like the ones mentioned above is a clear cut way to make tremendous wealth from the stock markets over the long term.

You just need to invest in small companies that enjoy rising demand for their products, have great business models, firm financial foundations, and straightforward and visionary management teams.

10 best performing stocks over the past 10 years

Company Name

Stock price (Jun '99)

Stock price (Jun '09)

Change

Market cap (Jun '99, Rs million)

Unitech Ltd

0.3

93

30900%

3.7

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd

3.1

660

21200%

113.9

Matrix Laboratories Ltd

0.9

209

23128%

3.0

Gujarat N R E Coke Ltd.

0.2

54

26975%

2.0

Mercator Lines Ltd

0.4

73

20206%

1.8

Praj Industries Ltd

0.6

115

18225%

2.5

Anant Raj Inds. Ltd.

0.8

133

17009%

8.2

Aban Offshore Ltd .

6.0

956

15833%

37.7

K S Oils Ltd.

0.5

62

12220%

2.5

Era Infra Engg. Ltd.

1.01

119

11682%

3.5

Source: Prowess (BSE-500)

This is exactly what we do through our Hidden Treasure service. For instance, rather than tracking the $10/20/30 billion market cap companies, we follow the ones with market caps of $50/100/150 million.

So take this lesson from the market's 10 best stocks, and put it to work in your portfolio by buying small cap stocks.

Of course, you need to adhere to your risk profile (small caps are high risk stocks if your investment horizon is not long) before taking any such action.

How to find the right financial advisor

When many people think of the term "financial advisor", they picture a stressed out Wall Street type sitting behind a computer or telephone placing buy and sell orders and attempting to make their clients as much money as possible.

While many advisors may still fit this mold, some are evolving their practice into a more comprehensive approach that takes a look at not just investments, but also insurance, budgeting, taxes, retirement, education funding and estate planning.

As you test the waters to find the right financial advisor for you, you'll need to have a grasp on the areas in which you are seeking help. You'll then be able to examine your potential financial advisor before you hire them and determine exactly how skilled they are in the areas for which you are seeking assistance.

Knowledge, qualifications and regulatory record
Unfortunately for the general public, the education standards for financial advisors are very minimal. One could drop out of high school, rent some office space, pass a FINRA general securities exam and be selling you stocks all within a couple of weeks.

While exams such as the Series 6, 7 and 63 satisfy the industry regulatory requirements, they really offer the advisor no experience when it comes to real-life situations. Don't be afraid to quiz your prospective financial advisor on his or her education and experience. How many years of experience in the industry does he or she have? Is a college degree important to you?

The financial industry has also been bombarded with professional designations, many of which can be obtained with little or no effort. The industry has three leading designations that have strict education and ethical requirements: Certified Financial Planner® (CFP®), chartered financial analyst (CFA) and chartered financial consultant (ChFC).

The certified public accountant (CPA) designation is also a valuable designation for professionals that handle the tax portion of your plan.

If you're looking for someone a little different than the everyday stock jockey, it may be wise to hire a registered investment advisor to represent you. They are held to a higher standard than most advisors, and you'll typically the most knowledgeable.

They are also required to provide a Form ADV Part II to all potential investors upon request; this is your opportunity to learn about your advisor, so make sure you use it. This will allow you to determine whether your advisor has applied for personal bankruptcy. If you'd rather not have someone who struggles to manage his or her own finances manage your money, you had better do your advisor homework!

Fiduciary responsibility - acting in your best interests
Seek out an advisor that is held to fiduciary standards. A fiduciary is someone who occupies a position of special trust and confidence with the responsibility of acting in the best interests of an investor. In the investment world, RIAs are required to abide by a fiduciary standard - stockbrokers are not.

Registered investment advisors are either registered with their state of residence or the Securities and Exchange Commission. They are regulated under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940, which requires them to act in the best interests of the investor.

Stockbrokers and large wire-house firms are currently exempt from the fiduciary standards under the act. If you can find an independent RIA, you also won't have to worry about paying high commissions on proprietary products (investment products that are owned and marketed by the investment firm).

Be cautious with stockbrokers. They can be "over-glorified salesmen" hired by large wire houses to sell proprietary mutual funds and stocks that the investment bank firm has promised corporations they will sell to investors. Proprietary products are those owned by the investment firm, and the brokers that sell these products get paid top commissions.

The more buying and selling that a broker does in an investor's account, the higher their commission payouts. If a broker does excessive buying and selling in an account to generate more commissions this is an illegal process known as churning.

In some cases, the investment may not be the most appropriate for the investor, but a lack of fiduciary standards does not hold brokers to always do the right thing. With some wire houses, it's all about quantity, not quality.

The logistics
When you've found a financial advisor that you trust, you'll need to dig a little deeper to iron out some of the more one-to-one issues. For starters, you'll need to agree on how your advisor will be paid. Will it be a fee-only agreement, fee-based or commissions? Each year, more investors are shifting from the traditional commission setup and moving towards the modern fee-only approach.

Because set fees are new to many investors, some common questions have risen, such as: "What is a fair fee?" and, "How will I be billed?" With the average mutual fund still charging an expense fee of approximately 1.40 per cent, it's safe to say that a total fee of 1.80 per cent or less is fair.

If you can find an advisor that can package an investment program that includes the cost of the investments, trading, custody and the advisor's professional services for 1.80 per cent or less, you're getting a sweet deal. Most fees are now billed quarterly, so you'll need to know whether they will be pulled in advance or in arrears. Then discuss with your advisor how frequently you would like to meet with him or her each year to review your portfolio.

True comprehensive financial planning
You need to have a general idea of your weaknesses prior to selecting your professional help. If you just need your taxes done, seek the help of a CPA. If you want someone to look at your entire financial situation, seek the help of a comprehensive financial planning firm. These firms typically have a professional staff that includes an insurance agent, tax professional, estate planner and financial advisor.

Understand all of the services that are available with the firm that you have chosen. Do they have a narrow focus? At a minimum, consider the following:

Will it track your investment cost basis for you?
Can it file your tax return and help you with other tax related questions?
Does it look at risk management? (i.e. life insurance, long-term care, etc...)
Can it help you plan your estate?
Will it refer you to another professional if the firm cannot provide the service itself?

What's next?
Good financial advisors are compared to "life coaches", because they can help you with many of your complex financial decisions throughout your life. A financial advisor can offer tips on buying a car, saving for college and refinancing your home mortgage, just to name a few.

They deal with other financial professionals on a daily basis, and they typically know if you're paying too much for something or not getting a competitive rate. Great financial advisors will not only help you make money on your investments, but will also help you reach your goals and save money on insurance and other major decisions throughout your lifetime.

To maximise your experience with your advisor, you should meet with the person quarterly, share your concerns and goals, and allow your advisor to review all of your financial and legal documents. After all, it's all about trust.

Why Jim Rogers is not buying stocks now

Maverick investment guru Jim Rogers, who has a pessimistic view on the state of western economies and what is being done to counter the recession, says equity markets have run up far too ahead. Rogers attributed the run-up in equity markets to the various stimuli packages released around the world.

The long-term call on the dollar was that it would be “a disaster,” Rogers said, but added that he was positive on the Japanese yen.

On commodities, Rogers said he owned base metals and — among precious metals — gold but wouldn’t buy those at current levels, given the recent rally in the commodities.

Rogers, who last year shifted base from the US to Singapore, said he was long-tern positive on Chinese equities. Among other BRIC markets, Rogers said he wouldn’t buy anything in the Russian market, though Brazil, which was a natural resource-rich country, looked better managed now, while the Indian stock market looked expensive due to its recent rally.


Here is a verbatim transcript of Jim Rogers’ exclusive interview on CNBC-TV18.



Q: It has been a big run for equity markets first and foremost, what have you made of it?

A: The governments around the world are pouring huge amounts of money into the world economy. It has to go somewhere and the easiest, best way for it to go is in the financial markets.


Q: It has also concomitant with a big fall in the dollar and there is a call now for greater weakness in that currency, would you concur?

A: I am not optimistic about the US dollar long-term. In fact, the US dollar long-term is going to be a disaster. However, there are many people in the world right now who are terribly pessimistic about the dollar including me, many people have sold the dollar short, and so it would not surprise me if there were not a big rally. If a rally comes, I plan to sell that rally but I am not selling the dollar down here.


Q: What is your call on the strength that the yen has seen and the kind of a nervousness that most of those export-oriented markets are exhibiting? Where do you see it headed from here?

A: I own the yen so I am very pleased to see the yen going higher. Various things are happening in Tokyo and Japan. They are the second largest creditor nation in the world plus their government has given big incentives for people to bring the yen back into Japan. Billions of yen have been invested outside of Japan and now there is good reason for them to bring it back.

So you have a new government [in Japan], you have incentives to bring the yen back, you have the carry trade unwinding, there are many reasons for the yen to continue to go higher. I own the yen and I hope it does go higher.


Q: What about the base metals, we have seen a lot of volatile moves across most of those base metals, where do you see them headed from here?

A: Base metals have had a huge rally, as you have pointed out. I know I wouldn’t be buying the base metals right now, I do own base metals — I am not selling base metals — but I don’t like to jump on a train, which is moving at a rapid rate. Base metals have gone up a whole lot in the last nine, 10 months. So I am not doing anything except for watching.


Q: You have tracked and watched the Chinese market as well for many years, there is concern on where that market might be headed and why it is lagging the performance of others?

A: I would hardly call it lagging the performance of others. The Chinese market doubled between the fall of last year and August of this year. So it was one of the strongest markets in the world, if not the strongest. It has calmed down in the last month or two but anything that doubles in ten months should slow down and consolidate. Who knows where it is going to go from here but I own Chinese shares, I have not sold any of my Chinese shares because longer-term I am very optimistic about China.


Q: From the emerging and Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) basket, what would be your top pick then right now in terms of markets?

A: I wouldn’t buy any of them. I would never buy the Russian market. The BRIC is some kind of an artificial thing, which some marketing people put together. I would not ever buy the Russian market. I own China. Brazil is a natural resource-based economy and it is being better managed these days and it has been in the past. So Brazil probably has a good future though I don’t own any Brazilian stocks. The Indian stock market has run up a lot in the last year or so. So I don’t think I would buy it either. I am not buying shares anywhere in the world as we speak.


Q: What about gold?

A: I own some gold and I am optimistic about the price of gold but I don’t think I would buy it either. The gold is near its all-time high, I think I would rather buy silver for instance if I had to buy a precious metal. However, I am not buying either at the moment. I certainly would not sell any precious metals — if they go down, I plan to buy more and maybe a lot more.


Q: How is the fund flow situation looking at least for our markets — there is a lot of appetite from foreign investors but in general how is the mood looking across that front?

A: I am not buying any emerging markets (EMs). If I were to buy EMs I had recently gone to Sri Lanka to look at it as an EM. I have not bought anything there but the Sri Lanka market has been extremely strong in the last year. Most EMs have been very strong in the past year after the collapse or the fall of 2008, most EMs have gone up a lot. I don’t like to buy anything that has gone up a lot. I am very worried about the Western economy, I don’t think that the problems are solved in the West and if you start seeing more problems in the West, it is going to have an effect on most markets around the world as certainly some of the EMs. The EMs, which have a lot of raw materials or commodities would probably do better than the others but again even they will be affected if we have more problems in the West.


Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Analysts' corner - September 28, 2009

3i Infotech
Reco price: Rs 85
Current market price: Rs 83.85
Target price: Rs 110
Upside: 31.2%
Brokerage: Sharekhan

On September 22, 3i Infotech decided to close the bid period for qualified institutional placement (QIP) and raised Rs 317.8 crore. The company would use the funds to retire debt, which would bring down its debt to equity ratio from 2.1 to 1.4. In terms of the equity base, the QIP issue would expand the fully diluted equity base by 23.4 per cent to 19.7 crore shares.

Consequently, 3i Infotech's 2009-10 and 2010-11 earnings are expected to get diluted by around 15-17 per cent. Considering the expanded equity and the likely interest expense savings, the 2009-10 EPS has been revised to Rs 12.8 and 2010-11’s to Rs 14.6.

Though the earnings dilution through QIP is likely to remain an overhang on the stock in near term, the company has taken necessary steps such as the QIP issue and sharp reduction in DSO days (121 days in 2008-09 v/s 151 days in 2007-08), which has allayed concern over its weakening balance sheet.

This coupled with an improvement in demand environment make 3i Infotech a strong case for re-rating. The brokerage has upgraded the stock with revised price target of Rs 110, assigning a target multiple of 7.5x, which is in line with its long-term average PE multiple since its listing in April 2005.

IPCA Labs
Reco price: Rs 721
Current market price: Rs 755
Target price: Rs 1,045
Upside: 38.4%
Brokerage: IDFC-SSKI

The newly-acquired scale, on the back of 70 per cent growth in revenues and 130 per cent jump in EBITDA between 2005-06 and 2008-09, imparts critical mass for IPCA Labs (IPCA) to grow.

Along with 18 per cent CAGR between 2008-09 and 2010-11 in domestic formulations sales, API momentum (at 13 per cent) and increasing formulation exports (22 per cent), the brokerage expects revenue growth of an average 18 per cent in the same period.

Given the high revenue growth visibility, IPCA would register 60 basis points expansion in its operating margins to 20.6 per cent by 2010-11. Adjusted net profit would likely see a 22 per cent CAGR over FY09-11 to Rs 238 crore in 2010-11.

With limited capex of around Rs 70 crore and operating profits in excess of Rs 300 crore per year, IPCA would start generating free cash from 2009-10. With 27 per cent return on equity (RoE) and high earnings visibility over FY09-11E, IPCA is trading at 9 times 2009-10 estimated earnings.

While frontline pharma stocks are trading at 18-20 times 2009-10 estimated earnings, IPCA is expected to get re-rated as the market starts valuing its growth visibility and healthy balance sheet. At the target price of Rs 1,045, the stock would trade at 11x 2010-11 estimated earnings. Reiterate outperformer.

Sesa Goa
Reco price: Rs 276
Current market price: Rs 256.8
Target price: Rs 325
Upside: 26.6%
Brokerage: Motilal Oswal Securities

Sesa Goa’s promoters have increased their stake in the company by 2.11 per cent to 57.12 per cent through open market purchases. Earlier in the year, the promoters had hiked their stake a little before the acquisition of Dempo. Sesa continues to look for opportunities of inorganic growth in Goa.

Iron ore prices have started strengthening. The imports of iron ore by China are expected to pick up in the coming months because Chinese mills will have to start re-stocking for winter months. Iron ore prices have also bottomed once again.

Exports from India have suffered in recent months due to prolonged monsoon and procedural hiccups post change of royalty to ad-valorem rate of 10 per cent. A strong demand-driven iron ore prices in China augur well for Indian iron ore exporters like Sesa Goa. Weaker freights due to commissioning of new cape-size bulk carrier would result in higher realisations for exporters.

The brokerage has raised its price assumption from $55 per tonne free-on-board at Indian ports for 63 per cent Fe grade iron ore to $65 per tonne. As a result, the EPS estimates for 2009-10 and 2010-11 has been raised to Rs 21.1 (earlier Rs 17.9) and Rs 27.7 (earlier Rs 20.2). The stock trades at 10 times 2010-11 estimated EPS and an EV of 5.3 times 2010-11 estimated EBITDA. Maintain buy.

Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts
Reco price: Rs 127
Current market price: Rs 126.95
Target price: NA
Brokerage: Angel Broking

Taj GVK is the market-leader in the Hyderabad market, where it has a share of 29 per cent in premium-segment rooms. In order to strengthen its foothold further and to tap mid-market room demand, the company is coming up with a 189-room property in Begumpet.

In 2007-08, about 78 per cent of Taj GVK's room inventory was located at Hyderabad. To diversify its presence, the company came up with Taj Mount Road in Chennai, in December 2008. It is planning to enter Bangalore and exploring the possibility of entering the mid-market segment through tie-ups with Indian Hotels.

As the economic revival gathers steam, tourist arrivals are expected to increase from Q2 2009-10. Moreover, Taj GVK is on an asset-light expansion strategy to strengthen its grasp on the Hyderabad market.

Moreover, Indian Hotels (one of Taj GVK’s promoters), the industry leader, currently has an EV per room of Rs 1.2 crore, which makes the risk-reward unattractive for an investment in Taj GVK. The brokerage remains positive on the industry, but considering Taj GVK's valuations, it maintains a neutral rating.

Zee News
Reco price: Rs 47
Current market price: Rs 47.05
Target price: NA
Brokerage: Edelweiss Securities

Zee News (ZNL) expects growth in advertising revenues from regional GEC channels. But, revenues from news channels are likely to be flat in Q2 2009-10. Also, increasing adoption of DTH and incremental revenues from analogue are expected to boost subscription revenues.

Till now, ZNL had three strong driver channels – Zee News, Zee Bangla and Zee Marathi. Zee Telugu competes closely with Eenadu and Maa Telugu for the second spot in viewership. Zee UP, launched in April 2009, too is performing well. Zee Kannada is also close to breaking even. Zee Business is likely to benefit from the strong IPO advertising pipeline. Going forward, Zee Telugu, Zee Kannada and Zee Business channels are to become other growth drivers for ZNL.

Unlike its competitor Star Jolsha, which is resorting to disruptive programming, Zee Bangla has continued with its strategy of gaining sticky viewership through low cost programming, which is likely to be a more sustainable strategy.

It has multiple drivers---strong bouquet of news and regional channels, improving viewer-ship, likely overall improvement in advertising industry from H2 2009-10, successful new shows, and strong management in place. The company is expected to benefit from likely revival in advertising spends in H2 2009-10.


Current market valuations leave little scope for profit-making

One-year forward price-to-earnings ratio at 16.4 times is above the historical average of 15 times.

Equity markets worldwide have witnessed major rallies since July 12 this year on the back of better-than-expected earnings for the June quarter. And the Indian market has already factored in a stronger recovery with price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples rising to over 20 times from around 10 in March 2009.

According to Morgan Stanley, foreign investors are a bit uncertain about India. They are worried about the rate at which the Indian market has risen after the last general election results, its high correlation with global markets, current valuations and the government’s reform agenda.

After the biggest fall in forward earnings in more than two decades, which happened in the March quarter, profit expectations are beginning to stabilise. According to a Citigroup analyst, trailing 12-month forward earnings estimates fell by 40 per cent over the 16 months to May 2009—a fall far greater than the last correction of 25 per cent earlier this decade. Since the lows of March 2009, forward earnings estimates have risen 9 per cent. Now it appears that these earnings have entered a recovery phase. Forward earnings expectations provide investors with a timely update on the outlook for profits over the next year.

Based on research reports of foreign as well as domestic equity research firms, the forward earnings data for 250 companies indicate that the corporate sector may show a 19 per cent increase in net profits in the remaining nine months of the current financial year. The earnings estimates of these 250 firms are important as they account for almost 77 per cent of the total market capitalisation of companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

The corporate sector’s net profit is expected to grow at 20 per cent in 2010-11. The sectors that are expected to post more than 20 per cent growth in their net profits in 2009-10 are auto ancillaries, capital goods, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals and sugar. Construction, steel, telecom, FMCG and non-ferrous metal companies are expected to post a double-digit growth, while banking, cement, fertilisers and power firms are likely to register a single-digit growth in their net profits.

Similarly, the sectors that are expected to show a decline in their net profits in the current financial year are finance, realty, consumer durables and mining & minerals. However, these sectors are expected to post a robust growth in 2010-11. The net profit of realty firms is likely to decline by around 25 per cent in 2009-10, but the same is expected to be up by 20 per cent in 2010-11. The retail sector, which is expected to make a turnaround in 2009-10, is all set to post a 44 per cent growth in its net profit in 2010-11. The net profit of software services companies is likely to remain flat in the current fiscal, but the sector is expected to show a double-digit growth in 2010-11.

The 250 sample companies are trading at a P/E of 16.4 times of FY10 earnings and 13.74 times of FY11 earnings. Nevertheless, their current P/E of 19.5 times, based on the trailing 12-month earnings for June 2009, has been more than double from a P/E of only 8 times just six months ago. Hence, the current valuations are expensive.

Based on the forward earnings, valuations of stocks are at their peaks in sectors such as auto, banking, cement, metals & mining, telecom and technology. Capital goods, hotels, logistics and power sectors do not seem to have immediate growth prospects. Retail, sugar, pharma, media, healthcare, aviation and real estate sectors are not fully priced, based on expected forward earnings for 2010-11.

Equities worldwide are over-valued with P/E multiples across emerging markets such as India, China, Indonesia and Brazil, and major developed market, including the UK, France, Germany and the US, hovering above their long-term averages. At 20.2 times, the Sensex P/E ratio is higher than the 15-year average P/E of 15 times. According to a Morgan Stanley analyst, for expected GDP growth of 5.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent for FY2010 and FY2011, respectively, an appropriate and stable ratio should be below 16.

At the current levels, MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan is trading at 15.3 times of the 12-month forward P/E, which is 76 per cent higher than the P/E of 8.7 times in November 2008. Historically, the current ratio is above its long-term average since 1992. Over the past 18 years, the market has traded above this level only three times, all during the major bull runs of 1993 (P/E 17.3), 1999 (P/E 20.9) and 2007 (P/E 17.4).

The global market capitalisation now stands at $46.71 trillion, up $21.01 trillion from March 2009 lows, but still $14 trillion below the January 2008 highs. On the other hand, the Indian market capitalisation has more than doubled from $506 billion to $1.17 trillion, but is still $720 billion below its all-time high. Equity markets have rallied significantly since their March 2009 lows with all global benchmark indices trading at historical P/E averages.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE
Growth in NP* (%) P/E ratio
FY10E FY11E Current FY10 FY11
Automobile 27.35 11.86 27.00 21.20 18.95
Banking 4.05 18.80 12.22 11.75 9.89
Capital Goods 35.82 24.33 33.80 24.89 20.02
Cement 8.86 -6.73 9.83 9.03 9.68
Construction 11.62 17.16 25.47 22.82 19.48
Finance 14.80 17.68 24.98 21.76 18.49
FMCG 14.78 15.48 27.72 24.15 20.91
IT-Software 0.27 11.71 19.99 19.94 17.85
Non-Ferrous Metals 12.79 35.89 16.63 14.75 10.85
Oil & gas 42.64 18.78 18.69 13.10 11.03
Pharmaceuticals 90.57 20.91 37.92 19.90 16.46
Power 10.47 13.01 24.08 21.80 19.29
Realty -24.96 19.63 24.77 33.01 27.59
Steel 18.96 30.41 16.50 13.87 10.64
Telecom 16.77 16.11 17.08 14.63 12.60
Total (250 companies) 19.14 19.11 19.50 16.37 13.74

Historical evidences show that investors who enter the equity market at lower levels get a return of over 50 per cent within six months. But investors who enter close on the heels of a 150 per cent rise in the market get a modest return after three-five years. The BSE Sensex and the Hang Seng have doubled, while other benchmark indices have appreciated by over 60 per cent from their 52-week lows.

According to a Credit Suisse report, if you buy after a 40 per cent drop in the market, the probability of making profits after three years is over 70 per cent. After five years, it goes up to over 80 per cent, against nearly 40 per cent if you buy after a long rally. The Sensex has appreciated by 102 per cent in six months from its low of 8,160 on March 9, 2009. So, the scope for any short-term upside is limited and one can only hope for long-term gains.

Indian Billionaire Club Ranking 2009

Rank Wealth (Rs crore)
2008 2009 Promoters Flagship company Industry Jan'08 Jan'09
1 1 Mukesh Ambani Reliance Ind Refineries 242,902.02 102,976.76
2 2 Anil Ambani Reliance Communications Telecommunication 166,308.96 56,226.71
4 3 Sunil Mittal Bharti Airtel Telecommunication 77,776.69 55,027.08
3 4 K P Singh & Family DLF Realty 156,400.46 31,657.29
7 5 Azim Premji Wipro IT 53,470.03 27,246.74
5 6 Anil Agarwal Sterlite Ind Metals 68,727.81 25,551.66
8 7 Gautam S Adani Adani Enterprises Trading 53,332.89 17,661.54
16 8 Dilip S Shanghvi Sun Pharma Pharmaceutical 15,949.03 15,047.99
10 9 Kumar Mangalam Birla Grasim Industries Diversified 38,462.81 13,256.32
24 10 Malvinder & Shivinder Singh Religare Enterprises Diversified 10,611.88 12,184.30
50 11 Saurabh Tayal Family Jaybharat Textiles Textiles 5,643.57 11,085.81
9 12 Prithviraj,Sajjan & Naveen Jindal Jindal Steel Metals 40,784.05 11,010.94
12 13 G M Rao GMR Infrastructure Infrastructure 28,588.16 10,180.67
18 14 Shiv Nadar HCL Technologies IT 14,686.51 5,953.34
27 15 Rahul Bajaj Bajaj Auto Automobiles 10,323.17 5,890.29
14 16 Vijay Mallya United Breweries Breweries 22,345.63 5,825.03
15 17 Uday Kotak Kotak Mahindra Bank Bank 21,857.51 5,811.47
43 18 Y K Hamied Cipla Pharmaceutical 6,109.73 5,712.24
38 19 V C Burman family Dabur FMCG 6,734.65 5,389.03
11 20 Tulsi R Tanti Suzlon Energy Capital goods 38,300.17 5,215.78
21 21 Kalanithi Maran Sun TV Network Media-entertainment 11,605.47 5,070.51
67 22 Brijmohan Lall Munjal Hero Honda Automobiles 4,041.05 4,596.39
13 23 Jaiprakash Gaur Jaiprakash Associates Cement 23,975.03 4,411.82
34 24 Vyomesh M Shah & Mahipatray V Shah Akruti City Realty 7,171.00 4,227.86
55 25 Ashwin Choksi, Ashwin Dani, Abhay Vakil Asian Paints FMCG 5,279.77 4,203.21
6 26 Ramesh Chandra Unitech Realty 56,965.44 4,177.05
22 27 Adi Godrej Godrej Industries FMCG 11,598.21 4,034.66
20 28 Subhash Chandra Zee Entertainment Media-entertainment 12,131.50 4,005.43
49 29 Murali Krishna Prasad Divi Divi's Lab Pharmaceutical 5,836.05 3,819.60
97 30 Nitin Sandesara Sterling Biotech Pharmaceutical 2,825.06 3,631.20
58 31 N R Narayana Murthy Infosys Technologies IT 4,821.72 3,468.29
NR 32 S Kishore & K A Sastry KSK Energy Ventures Power - 3,157.43
35 33 Glenn Saldhanha Glenmark Pharma Pharmaceutical 7,056.91 3,081.56
30 34 Keshub Mahindra Mahindra & Mahindra Automobiles 8,338.01 2,951.48
NR 35 Virendra D Mhaiskar IRB Infrastructure Developers Realty - 2,858.72
45 36 Sudhir Mehta Torrent Pharma Pharmaceutical 6,046.24 2,725.48
25 37 Shashi & Ravi Ruia Essar Oil Refineries 10,551.11 2,535.29
93 38 Pankaj R Patel Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceutical 2,853.93 2,517.43
107 39 D B Gupta Lupin Pharmaceutical 2,422.92 2,481.01
64 40 Sriram Thygaraj Shriram Transport Finance Financial services 4,212.00 2,463.21
28 41 B N Kalyani Bharat Forge Auto ancillaries 10,095.33 2,457.96
71 42 Ajay Piramal Piramal Healthcare Pharmaceutical 3,441.40 2,430.34
75 43 Nandan M Nilekani Infosys Technologies IT 3,326.99 2,393.12
81 44 S Gopalakrishnan Infosys Technologies IT 3,230.56 2,323.76
47 45 Gautam Thapar Crompton Greaves Capital goods 5,992.60 2,323.09
52 46 Kishore Biyani Pantaloon Retail Retail 5,536.72 2,321.81
32 47 B K Goenka Welspun India Textiles 7,647.96 2,223.37
105 48 Harsh C Mariwala Marico FMCG 2,611.69 2,207.99
39 49 R P Goenka CESC Diversified 6,731.49 2,199.08
60 50 Rajan Raheja Exide Ind Diversified 4,319.60 2,107.03
17 51 Rakeshkumar Wadhawan HDIL Realty 15,812.50 2,080.86
63 52 Nusli Wadia Bombay Dyeing Diversified 4,224.87 2,079.53
65 53 Manoj G Tirodkar GTL IT 4,185.71 2,065.26
70 54 PRS Oberoi EIH Services-hotels 3,532.71 2,038.68
23 55 Lagadapati Madhusudan Rao Lanco Infratech Engineering 11,114.12 2,018.01
73 56 Murugappan Family EID Parry Diversified 3,389.69 2,002.10
62 57 Shantanu Prakash Educomp Solutions IT 4,226.35 1,950.09
33 58 G V Krishna Reddy GVK Power & Infra Infrastructure 7,444.48 1,948.53
100 59 K Anji Reddy Dr Reddy's Labs Pharmaceutical 2,772.75 1,931.99
79 60 B K Parkeh & Family Pidilite Ind Chemicals 3,265.69 1,842.39
59 61 Samir Jain & Family Entertainment Network Media-entertainment 4,616.66 1,756.06
108 62 K Dinesh Infosys Technologies IT 2,420.50 1,741.08
80 63 Rajju D Shroff United Phosphorus Pesticides 3,232.00 1,682.86
29 64 V N Dhoot & Family Videocon Ind Diversified 9,916.80 1,633.46
40 65 Raghav Bahl TV18 Media-news 6,482.12 1,626.41
36 66 Satya Narian Prakash Punj Punj Lloyd Constructions 6,842.70 1,578.21
48 67 Hinduja Brothers Hinduja Ventures Diversified 5,917.18 1,564.54
106 68 Vivek Chaand Sehgal Motherson Sumi Auto ancillaries 2,572.62 1,550.10
112 69 S D Shibulal Infosys Technologies IT 2,121.56 1,526.04
26 70 Reji Abraham Aban Offshore Oil exploration 10,407.97 1,400.98
84 71 Kiran Mazumdar Shaw Biocon Pharmaceutical 3,131.96 1,381.56
87 72 Rakesh & Rekha Jhunjhunwala Investor Diversified 3,078.69 1,362.79
69 73 Venu Srinivasan & Suresh Krishna TVS Motors Automobiles 3,743.09 1,317.84
51 74 Anu Aga Thermax Capital goods 5,552.91 1,304.24
130 75 R S Agarwal Emami FMCG 1,817.91 1,279.48
101 76 Karsanbhai Khodidas Patel Nirma FMCG 2,771.65 1,279.48
42 77 Ashok Sarin & Anil Sarin Anant Raj Ind Realty 6,349.53 1,238.63
77 78 B G Bangur Shree Cement Cement 3,295.66 1,232.43
131 79 Sandip & Sanjay Jhunjhunwala Rei Agro Agro products 1,817.22 1,199.54
147 80 Shashi Kiran Shetty Allcargo Global Logistics 1,563.59 1,189.67
46 81 Naresh Goyal Jet Airways Aviation 6,004.01 1,185.39
41 82 Nimesh Nagindas Kampani JM Financial Financial services 6,477.58 1,119.12
85 83 Shyam Sunder Bhartia Jubilant Organosys Chemicals 3,123.32 1,080.41
184 84 Mam Ramaswamy & Geetha Muthiah Chettinad Cement Cement 1,141.96 1,051.63
95 85 K M Sheth & Family G E Shipping Shipping 2,834.48 1,047.23
57 86 Jignesh P Shah Financial Technologies IT 4,890.04 1,029.69
124 87 BS & GS Sawhney, DPS Kohili Koutons Retail Retail 1,962.48 1,016.50
54 88 S N Kirloskar Kirloskar Brothers Engineering 5,353.15 1,007.45
NR 89 Ismail G Memon & Family KGN Industries Miscellaneous - 985.75
119 90 P K Khurana Everest Kanto Cylinder Packaging 1,992.46 978.39
136 91 Abhijit Rajan Gammon India Engineering 1,737.12 948.50
72 92 H F Khorakiwala Wockhardt Pharmaceutical 3,401.90 940.94
86 93 D P Jindal Maharashtra Seamless Metals 3,087.01 913.39
19 94 J K Jain Jai Corp Infrastructure 14,293.84 912.78
61 95 B G Raghupathy BGR Energy Sys Engineering 4,269.41 897.17
56 96 B K Birla Century Textiles Diversified 4,981.00 891.19
118 97 H S Bedi Tulip Telecom Telecommunication 2,002.30 874.79
202 98 Arvind T Shah Asian Star Gems & Jewellery 1,033.36 872.51
37 99 Rohtas Goel & Family Omaxe Realty 6,819.65 856.01
129 100 Analjit Singh Max India Pharmaceutical 1,821.47 841.01
104 101 Dhruv M Sawhney Triveni Engg Sugar 2,691.58 835.52
68 102 B B Singal & Family Bhushan Steel Metals 3,935.94 826.46
206 103 Kamal Khetan Sunteck Realty & Infra Infrastructure 994.81 825.12
109 104 Mahendra Mohan Gupta & Family Jagran Prakashan Media-print 2,303.11 814.86
190 105 Prathap Reddy Apollo Hospitals Hospitals 1,109.56 814.53
116 106 Bhadresh K Shah AIA Engineering Engineering 2,037.30 807.47
507 107 Abhay Oswal Oswal Chemicals Chemicals 172.34 803.30
31 108 Ravi Puravankara Puravankara Project Realty 7,932.31 800.39
150 109 Ashok & Bhavarlal H Jain Jain Irrigation Plastics 1,505.22 799.07
166 110 Meeta & Vinu Dhingra Berger Paints Paints 1,271.99 794.83
180 111 Narendra Madhusudan Murkumbi Shree Renuka Sugars Sugar 1,176.35 791.51
137 112 Priyamvada Birla Estate Birla Corpn Diversified 1,730.62 765.10
NR 113 Arvind Rao OnMobile Global Telecommunication - 746.00
139 114 C K Somany Hind National Glass Glass 1,704.28 716.59
99 115 Shobhana Bhartia HT Media Media-print 2,783.41 703.43
143 116 Narendra K Patni Patni Computer IT 1,641.41 697.86
90 117 Ajit Gulabchand HCC Constructions 3,036.96 690.27
114 118 Kamal K Singh Rolta IT 2,108.06 631.70
140 119 Janmejay & Rajnikant Vyas Dishman Pharma Pharmaceutical 1,697.84 629.81
152 120 Sajjan Bhajanka & Family Century Plyboard Decorative & lamination 1,475.93 626.85
113 121 Dinesh B Patel Sintex Ind Diversified 2,109.03 626.63
66 122 Ashokkumar R Ruia & Family Phoenix Mills Realty 4,111.19 620.99
44 123 Pradeep Kumar Jain Parsvnath Developers Realty 6,068.27 617.99
146 124 Kokilaben Ambani Investor Diversified 1,593.26 613.14
133 125 Sanjeev Bikhchandani Info Edge (India) Services 1,774.81 612.66
74 126 T Venkattram Reddy & Family Deccan Chronicle Media-print 3,350.81 609.67
76 127 M L Mittal Ispat Ind Metals 3,312.61 605.01
78 128 J H & Y H Dalmia Dalmia Cement Cement 3,282.86 600.00
82 129 Rashesh Shah Edelweiss Capital Financial services 3,149.24 584.32
228 130 Vijay Kumar Jatia Modern India Textiles 820.70 581.70
128 131 Ashok M Advani Blue Star Air- conditioners 1,822.43 578.84
53 132 P N C Menon & Family Sobha Developers Realty 5,509.50 578.70
94 133 P K Jain & Family Gujarat Fluorochemicals Chemicals 2,849.13 570.76
243 134 S V Balasubramaniam Bannari Amman Sugars Sugar 745.47 551.47
179 135 Ramesh Chand Garg K S Oils FMCG 1,182.03 544.90
138 136 P R Ramasubrahmaneya Rajha Madras Cements Cement 1,714.65 538.66
252 137 Balbir Singh Uppal Lakshmi Energy & Foods Agro products 719.56 530.89
127 138 Arun Kumar Jagatramka Gujarat NRE Coke Coal & Coke 1,822.83 517.83
89 139 Mofatraj P Munot Kalpataru Power Engineering 3,040.65 510.03
98 140 Pravin Patel Patel Engineering Constructions 2,799.41 510.00
88 141 Nirmal Jain & R Venkataraman India Infoline Financial services 3,057.45 471.30
213 142 Kamal Nayan Saraogi Balrampur Chini Sugar 924.08 471.04
134 143 Braj Binani & Family Binani Cement Cement 1,768.84 463.03
122 144 Kushagra Bajaj Bajaj Hind Sugar 1,983.58 459.87
164 145 P V Ramaprasad Reddy Aurobindo Pharma Pharmaceutical 1,307.22 456.19
201 146 H S Bharana Era Infra Engineering Infrastructure 1,034.37 453.05
110 147 Qimat Rai Gupta Havell's India Engineering 2,273.40 444.11
91 148 Sudhir Reddy & Family IVRCL Infra Infrastructure 2,954.07 443.69
158 149 Vinod Parasam Ramnani Opto Circuits Electronics 1,408.11 435.87
234 150 Chandurkar & Family Ipca Lab Pharmaceutical 800.97 418.66
192 151 Krishna Kumar Modi Godfrey Phillips Diversified 1,093.97 418.22
175 152 Onkar S Kanwar Apollo Tyres Tyres 1,191.02 412.52
92 153 Arvind Dham Amtek Auto Auto ancillaries 2,930.39 411.75
245 154 S S Jindal Jindal Poly Films Diversified 742.63 404.52
83 155 Saket Agarwal ABG Shipyard Engineering 3,143.75 403.09
209 156 Devineni Raja Sekhar Nava Bharat Ventures Metals 952.27 395.95
248 157 Sujit Kanoria Shristi Infr Development Constructions 734.38 394.19
141 158 Kailash Shahara Ruchi Soya FMCG 1,659.49 391.48
195 159 Nitin D Shah & Family Allied Digital IT 1,079.43 390.30
142 160 Soshil Kumar Jain & Ravinder Jain Panacea Biotec Pharmaceutical 1,655.03 379.42
144 161 Bithal Das Mundhra Simplex Infra Infrastructure 1,617.27 376.05
233 162 Lalit Khaitan Radico Khaitan Breweries 801.08 375.69
217 163 Vinita & Bhavik Nikhil Merchant Swan Mills Textiles 907.43 375.40
406 164 Chandir Gidwani & Khushroo P Byramjee Centrum Capital Financial services 281.90 369.66
NR 165 Balvantsinh C Rajput & Kanubhai J Thakkar Gokul Refoils & Solvent FMCG - 366.95
313 166 Meera R Chandavarkar FDC Pharmaceutical 489.39 366.12
168 167 Shashikant Patel Plethico Pharma Pharmaceutical 1,250.68 364.89
186 168 Janardan & Prashant Agarwal Bombay Rayon Fashions Textiles 1,132.86 364.73
196 169 Arun K Saraf Asian Hotels Services-hotels 1,068.35 361.49
185 170 C P Krishnan Nair Hotel Leela Venture Services-hotels 1,138.46 359.49
240 171 B M Khaitan McLeod Russel Diversified 763.19 357.42
257 172 Shapoor P Mistry Forbes Gokak Textiles, FMCG 692.73 356.51
276 173 Satyanarayan Nuwal Solar Explosives Indl explosives 625.97 353.61
197 174 Mohan H Bhandari Bilcare Packaging 1,066.23 348.73
277 175 Prem Kishan Gupta Gateway Distriparks Logistics 624.34 348.46
160 176 Mahendra Nahata HFCL Infotel Telecommunication 1,397.80 346.18
123 177 Urvi Piramal Peninsula Land Realty 1,977.00 345.86
103 178 Vineet,Vinod & Vikram Kashyap BL Kashyap & Sons Constructions 2,716.38 345.07
115 179 Kasliwal Family S Kumars Nationwide Textiles, realty 2,077.34 335.57
120 180 B M Thaper Greaves Cotton Engines 1,985.72 325.02
126 181 Rajesh Jasvantrai Mehta & Family Rajesh Exports Gems & Jewellery 1,888.58 324.13
183 182 K S Raju Nagarjuna Fertilisers Fertilisers 1,149.88 322.61
117 183 B Sarabeswar & S Sivaramkrishnan Consolidated Const Constructions 2,027.32 321.71
156 184 Prannoy Roy & Radhika Roy NDTV Media-news 1,414.62 320.35
290 185 G P Goenka Andhra Cements Cement 580.70 315.10
145 186 AVS Raju Nagarjuna Construction Constructions 1,612.76 314.07
193 187 Sandeep Jajodia & Family Monnet Ispat Metals 1,093.53 309.43
319 188 Ashish R Goenka Suashish Diamonds Gems & Jewellery 472.82 309.17
278 189 Asif Khader & Mukkaram Jan Cranes Software IT 623.15 306.74
226 190 M P Ramachandran Jyothy Lab FMCG 842.61 301.97
163 191 L N Jhunjhunwala HEG Electrodes 1,307.39 301.20
265 192 Dilip D Khatau Varun Shipping Shipping 658.70 300.97
334 193 R N Agrawal Sanwaria Agro Oils Agro products 428.98 300.04
292 194 Ashok Soota MindTree IT 578.12 296.77
178 195 Anil Jain Time Technoplast Plastics 1,184.08 296.49
121 196 B D Agarwal Prakash Ind Metals 1,985.05 295.54
204 197 Bhadram Janhit Shalika Sterlite Ind Metals 1,012.37 295.46
357 198 Gaurav Ghai Graviss Hospitality Services-hotels 372.54 294.90
159 199 B K Jhawar Usha Martin Metals 1,405.17 290.47
189 200 Chandru Lachmandas Raheja Shopper's Stop Retail 1,113.14 282.29
371 201 Ratan Lal Tamakuwala & Rishi Raj Agarwal Austral Coke Coal & Coke 335.91 279.82
370 202 Prakash & Anita Mody Unichem Labs Pharmaceutical 336.10 277.76
208 203 J V Patel GMM Pfaudler Engineering 989.54 277.50
188 204 Sanjay S Lalbhai Arvind Textiles 1,115.67 277.39
172 205 H K Mittal & Archna Mittal Mercator Lines Shipping 1,226.83 277.36
258 206 Chirayu R Amin Alembic Pharmaceutical 692.64 277.17
274 207 Bharathi Kovelamudi Sun TV Network Media-entertainment 629.02 274.82
207 208 Hari Shankar Singhania group JK Laksmi Cement Cement 993.93 273.95
412 209 Ambar Timblo Fomento Resorts & Hotels Hotels 266.36 273.88
111 210 M R Jaishankar Brigade Enterprises Realty 2,175.52 273.67
153 211 Prem Singhee & Padam Singhee Shivvani Oil Oil exploration 1,457.14 273.53
235 212 Rajendra Pawar & Associates NIIT Technologies IT 799.13 271.75
96 213 Rajnikaht S Ajmera Shree Precoated Steels Metals 2,827.30 270.35
- 214 J P Chowdhary & Family Titagarh Wagons Engineering 26.98 270.25
135 215 B Teja Raju Maytas Infra Infrastructure 1,764.21 263.24
191 216 D P Agarwal Transport Corp Services 1,103.15 259.19
215 217 C K Birla Orient Paper Paper 915.30 258.73
194 218 Sanjiv Saraf Polyplex Ferro alloys 1,090.71 256.79
247 219 Ajay S Shriram DCM Shriram Cons Diversified 735.57 256.03
200 220 D Jayavarthanavelu LMW Diversified 1,039.86 255.61
132 221 Vinod Doshi Walchandnagar Ind Engineering 1,817.11 254.83
463 222 Dhilin H Mehta Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Media-entertainment 205.49 254.46
270 223 S P Oswal Vardhman Textiles Textiles 642.94 252.68
148 224 Sameer Gehlaut Indiabulls Finance, realty 1,538.57 251.73
287 225 C K Mehta Deepak Fertilisers Fertilisers 591.44 251.33
221 226 Ram Sharan Sanghi Sanghi Ind Cement 865.61 248.27
237 227 Anil D Gala Navneet Publications Media-publications 771.31 246.95
305 228 Arun Bharat Ram SRF Textiles 521.97 240.30
362 229 Sunder Genomal & Family Page Industries Retail 353.97 239.67
171 230 Ghanshyam Kejriwal & Family Electrosteel Castings Casting 1,245.15 239.33
289 231 K K Bangur Graphite India Electrodes 586.10 238.75
281 232 Zia Jaydev Mody Delta Corp Financial services 615.27 237.77
241 233 N Jagan Mohan Reddy Rain Commodities Cement 762.15 237.61
162 234 Praful Nanji Satra Satra Properties Realty 1,318.08 237.37
- 235 Nikhil and Bhavesh Gandhi Horizon Infra Infrastructure 62.22 237.21
151 236 Mehul C Choksi Gitanjali Gems Gems & Jewellery 1,493.28 233.99
149 237 Aditya Jajodia & Sanjiv Jajodia Jai Balaji Ind Metals 1,520.57 229.84
212 238 P P Chhabria Finolex Industries Cables 931.42 227.71
219 239 Vijaypat Singhania Raymond Textiles 880.94 227.61
NR 240 Bharat Kumar Sah & B Singh Mavens Biotech Food products - 227.48
102 241 Sushil Ansal Ansal Properties Realty 2,769.40 226.70
268 242 A J Prasad HBL Power Systems Auto ancillaries 652.58 226.70
161 243 Subrata Roy Sahara Sahara One Media-entertainment 1,363.21 225.17
229 244 Pramod Chaudhari Praj Ind Engineering 817.63 224.00
307 245 Aroon Purie TV Today Media-news 519.56 223.20
218 246 S M Agarwal HT Media Media-print 882.88 223.12
205 247 Dharaprasad Poddar Balkrishna Ind Tyres 997.38 222.71
173 248 Nikhil & Salil Chaturvedi Provogue Retail 1,221.28 216.76
182 249 Sudip Dutta & Aarti Dutta Ess Dee Alum Metals 1,156.93 216.74
316 250 Anil T & K S Ramakrishna Karuturi Global Floriculture/Tissue Culture 479.50 214.34
566 251 Sudhir Shankar Moravekar Panoramic Universal Services-hotels 124.15 210.51
155 252 Prayasvin Patel & Family Elecon Engg Engineering 1,416.86 210.10
157 253 Sanjeev Mansotra & Sundar Dua Core Projects IT 1,411.87 209.76
259 254 Rohinton Screwvala UTV Software Media-news 684.97 209.00
286 255 Rajinder Gupta Abhishek Ind Textile cotton 591.48 207.12
263 256 K M Mammen MRF Tyres 678.80 204.94
165 257 Ashok Punj PSL Metals 1,279.94 204.25
- 258 Vijay Sawant Jaybharat Textiles Textiles 73.62 202.16
350 259 Mayank Poddar Magma Fincorp Financial services 393.66 201.96
214 260 M M Thapar JCT Textiles 922.35 197.75
NR 261 Vathsala Ranganathan Shriram EPC Engineering - 197.24
231 262 Vishnubhai & Shantaben Patel Sadbhav Engineering Engineering 808.71 195.82
554 263 Kanwar Deep Singh Alchemist Realty Constructions 133.87 194.57
297 264 Amit Y Agrawal Jindal Worldwide Trading 550.96 194.43
170 265 D Udaykumar Reddy & D Tanuja Reddy Tanla Solutions IT 1,245.73 192.19
176 266 Nirmal Kumar Agarwal Adhunik Metaliks Metals 1,188.88 185.27
246 267 Deepak Puri & Sabena Puri Moser Baer IT 741.60 184.31
216 268 Archana Mittal Arshiya International Capital goods 909.14 182.54
220 269 P P Gupta Techno Electric Engineering 878.74 182.23
223 270 Lalitkumar H Patel Voltamp Transformers Electrical equipment 862.64 181.49
222 271 A C Muthiah Sical Logistics Logistics 864.59 180.75
NR 272 K Hari Babu & N S Wallimbe Anu's Laboratories Pharmaceutical - 180.64
232 273 G H Singhania & Yadupati Singhania JK Cement Cement 806.27 180.07
203 274 B R Taneja ISMT Metals 1,029.31 178.45
361 275 Bharat P Mehta JB Chem & Pharma Pharmaceutical 359.66 177.90
364 276 Ashank Desai & Associates Mastek IT 349.08 173.02
310 277 Ashok Chaturvedi Uflex Cables 501.77 172.99
345 278 P E Subramaniam & P S Jagdish Indo Tech Transformers Capital goods 402.43 172.84
369 279 L P Jaiswal Jagatjit Ind Breweries 338.64 172.28
249 280 K R Thakur Jyoti Structures Infrastructure 729.70 171.77
314 281 B L Taparia Supreme Ind Petrochemicals 488.14 171.77
303 282 L G Balakrishnan Elgi Equipments Diversified 531.03 167.39
242 283 Vijay Kumar Gupta Gujarat Ambuja Exports Trading 747.30 166.71
394 284 Mullapudi H Prasad Andhra Sugars Sugar 295.82 165.48
387 285 Jagdish K Saxena & Family Elder Pharma Pharmaceutical 302.49 165.40
349 286 R K Somany Hindustan Sanitaryware Ceramic tiles 397.38 165.29
254 287 M K Agarwal Gati Services 702.67 164.44
588 288 Sunil H Pophale Fem Care Pharma Pharmaceutical 106.61 164.15
427 289 M Y Ghorpade Sandur Manganese Ferro alloys 249.37 163.74
154 290 Bikramjit Ahluwalia Ahluwalia Contracts Infrastructure 1,423.36 161.46
411 291 Sanjiv Goyal Nectar Lifesciences Pharmaceutical 266.43 160.94
384 292 Akash Saraf & Rajkumar Saraf Zenith Infotech IT 305.97 160.75
291 293 V Ramakrishna Family KCP Cement 578.84 160.50
225 294 Venkatachalam Ramaswamy Edelweiss Capital Financial services 858.96 159.37
187 295 Vijay Kumar Choudhary & Family Himadri Chemicals Chemicals 1,123.37 158.69
- 296 Prem Adip Rishi MVL Constructions 54.82 158.60
285 297 Anuradha Mahindra Kotak Mahindra Bank Bank 592.34 157.49
260 298 C J George and A V Viswanadhan Geojit Financial Services Financial services 684.11 157.40
300 299 S K Birla Mysore Cements Cement 532.72 157.04
251 300 Ashok B Jiwrajka Alok Ind Textiles 727.53 156.68
321 301 Nitin M Shah & Family Nitin Fire Protection Inds Engineering 467.23 155.45
267 302 N D Desai Apar Ind Electrical equipment 654.13 154.01
236 303 Jeetendra Kapoor & Family Balaji Telefilms Media-entertainment 782.13 153.91
169 304 K K Sarda & Family Sarda Energy Power 1,247.28 153.62
326 305 Chandra Kumar Dhanuka Dhunseri Tea Diversified 460.98 152.51
272 306 G Mangilal Surana Bhagyanagar India Metals 635.60 151.57
210 307 Sanjay Dalmia GHCL Alkalies 949.68 151.27
360 308 Gautam N Mehra Savita Chemicals Chemicals 364.78 151.10
NR 309 S Kishore Chandra Bheema Cements Cement - 149.84
393 310 Brijween Kaur Sahney NRB Bearings Auto ancillaries 295.86 149.66
479 311 T T Jagannathan TTK Prestige FMCG 191.53 148.85
558 312 Harish Belwal Intra Infotech IT 129.21 148.09
343 313 B M Labroo Asahi India Glass Glass 415.57 148.00
404 314 Annand Sarnaaik Glodyne Technoserve IT 284.98 147.77
372 315 Indira Anand Sun TV Network Media-entertainment 335.40 146.54
262 316 Jitendra U Mamtora Transformers and Rectifiers Electrical equipment 681.61 145.61
177 317 Rajesh Patil & Family Kolte Patil Developers Realty 1,186.68 145.25
347 318 Saroj Agarwal Visa Steel Metals 401.94 143.61
336 319 Udayant Malhoutra Dynamatic Techno Pumps & compressor 425.10 142.94
311 320 Basant Kumar & Suresh Kumar Agrawal Manaksia Metals 499.30 142.39
NR 321 G S Chandrashekar & Aniket Jathar Vishal Informations Tech IT - 141.46
283 322 N Sankar Chemplast Sanmar Petrochemicals 601.28 140.11
299 323 Jawahar Lal Oswal Nahar Ind Diversified 532.97 137.07
295 324 M L Lohia Indo Rama Synth Textiles 556.05 136.13
294 325 C P Sanghvi and A P Sanghvi Sanghvi Movers Engineering 558.03 135.95
333 326 Kulkarni Kiran Prakash & Pankaj Kumar Geodesic Inform Sys IT 431.62 129.85
264 327 Jayantilal & Mishrimal Sanghvi Ratnamni Metals Metals 660.69 129.77
315 328 Garware Family Garware-Wall Ropes Diversified 481.05 129.67
368 329 Suresh Sharma Vertex Spg Textiles 338.77 129.32
NR 330 Venugopal Bang Bang Overseas Textiles - 128.48
377 331 Gurjeet Singh Johar & Rajbir Singh C&C Constructions Constructions 323.37 128.21
356 332 BVR Mohan Reddy & B Sucharitha Infotech Enterprises IT 376.45 127.56
227 333 Punit Beriwala Vipul Realty 836.17 127.53
306 334 Mark Saldanha Marksans Pharma Pharmaceutical 521.05 126.27
238 335 Rajiv Rattan Indiabulls Finance, realty 768.44 125.88
505 336 Chandramogan R G Hatsun Agro Prod Agro products 173.23 125.88
330 337 Rajan Nanda Escorts Automobiles 451.40 125.60
559 338 Surender Singh Kandhari Tudor Auto ancillaries 128.94 124.97
422 339 Ankit Miglani Uttam Galva Metals 255.64 124.43
379 340 P Subramanian & S Sangeetha Shanthi Gears Auto ancillaries 317.93 122.90
304 341 D K Himatsingka & Family Himatsingka Seide Textiles 527.93 122.77
244 342 Saurabh Mittal Indiabulls Finance, realty 745.38 121.83
476 343 Vinit Kumar Temptation Foods FMCG 193.90 121.65
322 344 Sushil Suri Morepen Lab Pharmaceutical 466.76 120.43
495 345 Chandrakant V Gogri Aarti Ind Pharmaceutical 179.73 120.30
255 346 Hemant Kanoria SREI Infrastructure Fin Financial services 700.98 120.00
199 347 Anil Kumar & Subhash Chand Sethi Subhash Projects Constructions 1,048.51 118.95
266 348 M V Ramana Rao MIC Electronics Electronics 658.03 118.42
279 349 Raamdeo Agrawal Motilal Oswal Financial Services Financial services 619.19 117.62
280 350 Motilal Oswal Motilal Oswal Financial Services Financial services 615.67 116.96
487 351 Abhishek Dhanuka Dhanuka Agritech Pesticides 184.42 116.37
198 352 Nama Nageswar Rao & Nama Seethaiah Madhucon Projects Constructions 1,053.46 115.92
385 353 Arun Jain Polaris Software IT 303.57 115.31
346 354 Arvind Mafatlal NOCIL Diversified 402.12 115.04
250 355 Chetan R Shah Marathon Next Realty Realty 728.82 114.78
211 356 K L Ramachandra Khoday India Breweries 945.76 114.31
456 357 N R Panicker Accel Frontline IT 210.77 113.85
253 358 Mukesh R Gupta & Family Lloyds Metals Metals 709.58 113.03
125 359 Pujit Aggarwal & Ravi Kiran Aggarwal Orbit Corporation Realty 1,906.98 112.18
337 360 Kewalchand P Jain Kewal Kiran Textiles 422.84 111.67
465 361 Gurkirat Singh Dhillon Religare Enterprises Financial services 204.19 109.99
466 362 Gurpreet Singh Dhillon Religare Enterprises Financial services 204.19 109.99
224 363 Kishore & Abhijit Avarsekar Unity Infraprojects Infrastructure 860.51 109.73
309 364 Manharlal Chunilal Shah Ruby Mills Textiles 510.45 109.60
582 365 Ashok Kumar Kajaria Kajaria Ceramics Ceramic tiles 110.87 109.59
367 366 Mohamed Yusuf Noorani Zodiac Clothing Retail 339.06 109.20
421 367 G V Bhaskar Rao & Family Kaveri Seed Diversified 256.98 108.87
NR 368 Fatech Chand Jain Adinath Bio-Labs Chemicals - 107.36
335 369 P D Mundhra & Anjan Malik eClerx Services IT 425.90 107.18
545 370 J Naresh Kumar Pennar Ind Metals 139.52 107.15
491 371 Navpreet Singh Dolphin Offshore Ent Oil exploration 180.92 105.98
400 372 Anilaben A Shah Suraj Stainless Steel mini 289.43 105.25
454 373 Nalikant Amratlal Rathod Restile Ceramics Ceramic tiles 217.12 104.73
174 374 Ram Chandra Agarwal Vishal Retail Retail 1,218.81 104.62
355 375 Mahendra Mehta - NRI Gujarat Sidhee Cement Cement 376.55 104.43
NR 376 Pravin A Kiri Kiri Dyes and Chemicals Dyes & dyes intermediates - 104.30
376 377 Venkateswarlu Jasti Suven Life Sciences Pharmaceutical 330.64 104.07
NR 378 Subhash Sharma Resurgere Mines Mining - 103.78
352 379 Deepak Seth & Family House of Pearl Fashion Textiles readymade apparel 387.75 102.38
440 380 Selvam Selvi Sun TV Network Media-entertainment 232.11 101.41
441 381 Shanmugasundaram Selvam Sun TV Network Media-entertainment 232.11 101.41
318 382 Suresh N Bhatnagar Diamond Power Infra Cables 476.19 100.56