Friday, May 28, 2010

Number of Stocks in Long Term Portfolio

There are two questions that will always haunt any long term investor. One is about what is a right asset allocation, and second is how many stocks one needs in a long term portfolio. I do not think there is any boiler plate type of answer to these questions. I believe while it is absolutely necessary to have an optimum asset allocation and multiple number of stocks, the actual percentage allocation or number of stocks will depend upon individuals risk profile, willing to learn, willing to spend time reading about companies, etc. In addition, these two aspects cannot be generalized and it cannot be a static numbers. These have to be dynamic and should change with the investing time period. Having said that following is my thought process for my long term portfolio.


In my case, I am looking to companies that pay dividends and have potential to grow over a period of time. It is my belief that as companies grow their earnings, they will grow their dividends (this addresses my cash flow or income objective). In addition, it will also be accompanied by capital appreciation (this addresses my objective of wealth accumulation). The question is how many companies should I include in my portfolio?


My vision is that I should have approximately 25 to 30 companies that occupy up to 75% of my investing portfolio. I view this as a core portfolio. The companies that I plan on including in this are the ones that are somehow associated with India’s growth story or ones that sell into Indian market.

  • The rationale of using 25 to 30 companies is that I want to limit my dividend exposure to any single company to maximum of 5%. In one my earlier post, I have discussed the process of risk management and asset allocation.
  • I do not expect 100% success rate in my company selection. Keep with this, I expect that 15 to 18 companies will perform as per my initial expectation and will continue to provide growing dividends over time. I also expect that they will continue to increase their value.
  • The remaining 12 to 15 may or may not perform, and hence I will have to continue to make changes such as adding to existing ones, removing, and adding newer ones.


Furthermore, I tend to think that it would be nearly impossible for me to keep track and closely follow more than 30 companies. This is what my present thought process is. I will see how it works out and will adapt if necessary. One the benefit of long term investing is that you do not need to keep following the market daily or monthly; the companies that you select are not going to vanish or crash in such short period of time.

Dividend Paying Companies – India

Indian companies paying dividends and actual dividend amount for last ten years.


Companies Total Since 2000 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
ONGC 254.0
32.0 31.0 38.0 45.0 30.0 27.0 31.0 13.5 6.5
Nestle India 224.0 21.0 33.0 32.0 26.0 27.5 20.0 20.0 18.0 14.0 12.5
Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd. 206.0 10.0 20.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 14.0 14.0 8.0 10.0
GlaxoSmith Pharma 192.5 40.0 36.0 31.0 28.0 24.0 10.0 7.0 5.5 5.0 6.0
Housing DFC 185.0 30.0 25.0 22.0 20.0 17.0 13.5 11.0 25.0 12.5 9.0
Bosch 158.8 25.0 25.0 16.0 12.0 10.0 6.5 4.0 3.3 31.0 26.0
Hero Honda Motors 156.0 20.0 19.0 17.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 18.0 17.0 3.0 2.0
Larsen & Toubro 127.0 10.5 15.0 15.0 22.0 17.5 26.0 7.5 7.0 6.5
State Bank of India 126.5 29.0 21.5 14.0 14.0 12.5 11.0 8.5 6.0 5.0 5.0
Asian Paints 117.0 19.5 17.0 13.0 12.5 9.5 8.5 11.0 9.0 7.0 10.0
Foseco India 111.9 3.5 15.0 16.0 17.5 15.5 18.5 27.5 0.9 1.0
Tata Investments Corp 105.1 15.0 15.0 15.0 12.0 12.0 10.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 8.0
Gujarat Gas 104.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 12.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 32.5 10.0
Mahindra and Mahindra 86.5 10.0 11.5 11.5 10.0 13.0 9.0 5.5 5.0 5.5 5.5
Revathi Equipment Ltd. 78.0
10.0 10.0 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 10.0 28.0 0.0
Reliance Industries 77.9 13.0 13.0 11.0 10.0 7.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.0
Tata Motors 76.0 6.0 15.0 15.0 13.0 12.5 8.0 4.0

2.5
GE Shipping 72.3 8.0 15.0 11.5 10.0 9.0 6.5 4.0 4.0 2.8 1.5
ICICI Bank 69.5 11.0 11.0 10.0 8.5 8.5 7.5 7.5 2.0 2.0 1.5
Thermax 67.9 5.0 8.0 6.0 3.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 5.0 1.0 3.5
Hawkins Cooker Ltd. 54.0 20.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 4.0
Dr Reddys Labs 53.3 6.3 3.8 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.5 14.0 3.0
Grindwell Norton 52.0 4.0 4.0 7.5 11.0 10.0 6.5 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.0
Reliance Infra 49.2 7.0 6.3 5.3 3.8 3.7 4.7 6.4 4.3 4.0 3.7
HDFC Bank 48.1 10.0 8.5 7.0 5.5 4.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.6
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 42.0 22.0 20.0







Bajaj Auto Finance 38.5 2.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 4.5 3.0 3.0
Reliance Capital 36.1 6.5 5.5 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
Dabur India 33.9 1.8 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 0.5 10.0 10.0
Voltamp Transformer 33.5 12.5 12.5 8.0 0.5





Greaves Cotton 33.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bank of India 31.5 8.0 4.0 1.5 5.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0
Bombay Dyeing 30.5 1.0 3.5 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 3.0
Blue Star Ltd. 29.1 7.0 7.0 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.5
Crompton Greaves 28.4 2.1 1.9 1.4 7.0 5.5 7.5 3.0


Hyderabad Industries Ltd. 27.5 10.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Trinton Valves Ltd. 27.5 15.0 12.5







ICI India 24.0 16.0 8.0







Aegis Logistics 21.5 7.3 2.0 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7
Maruti Suzuki 21.0 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.5 2.0 1.5



Cipla 19.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.5 3.0 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.1
Oriental Hotels Ltd 19.5 9.0 10.5







NTPC 17.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.4 0.9


Sanco Transport 17.4 4.5 3.2 2.7 2.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 1.0
Royal Orchid 17.0
6.0 6.0 5.0





Kotak Mahindra Bank 16.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 3.8 1.8
Pidilite Industries Ltd. 8.4
1.8 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4
Visaka Industries 7.0 4.0 3.0







MM Forgings Ltd. 6.5 1.5 5.0







Zuari Industries 6.0 3.0 3.0







Ajanta Pharma 5.0 2.5 2.5







Unichem Laboratories 5.0 5.0








Tilak Nagar Industried Ltd. 4.6 2.5 2.1







MRO-TEK Ltd 4.0 1.0 3.0







Chambal Fertilizer 3.6 1.8 1.8







J K Paper Ltd. 3.3 1.8 1.5







Nitin Fire Protection Industries Ltd. 3.0 3.0








ADF Foods 2.5 1.5 1.0







Ashok Leyland Ltd. 2.5 1.0 1.5







Keltech Energies Ltd. 2.5 2.5








Everest Kanto Cylinder 2.4 1.2 1.2







Power Grid Corporation 2.4 1.2 1.2







Joyti Structures Ltd. 1.7 0.9 0.8