Showing posts with label Disinvestment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Disinvestment. Show all posts

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Disinvestment of public sector units in India: EY

The public sector contributes about a quarter of India’s domestic output and employs about 19 million people, both in the centre and the states. Bulk of this output, mostly in industry and services, is contributed by close to 250 public sector enterprises, owned and managed by the Central Government. Besides, there are 1,100 state level public enterprises that are relatively small in size, largely intended to meet social welfare objectives and to secure resources from public sector banks and develop financial institutions. While, the contribution of these publicly owned and managed enterprises, to national development has been widely acknowledged, their poor financial return has been a matter of concern.

The process of privatisation was initiated in 1991-92 with the sale of minority stakes in some PSUs, primarily to raise resources to bridge the fiscal deficit. In order to raise resources and encourage wider public participation, a part of the Government’s shareholding in the public sector was offered to public investment institutions, financial institutions, general public and workers.

The disinvestment policy of 1991 aimed to focus public sector investment on strategic, high-tech and essential infrastructure. Boards of public sector companies were made more professional and performance improvement was sought, by providing greater autonomy and accountability. PSUs, which were chronically sick and unlikely to be turned around were referred to the Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) and social security mechanisms were created to protect the interests of workers. The disinvestment process of the early 1990s came to an abrupt halt following the collapse of the stock markets. Since, the stock markets remained subdued for much of the 1990s, the disinvestment targets were largely unmet. After a change in the Government in 1996, although there was a rethink on the disinvestment policy, there was no reversal in policy. The Disinvestment Commission constituted during this period recommended: Restructuring and reorganising of PSUs before disinvestment, Strengthening of PSUs, which were performing well and Utilisation of disinvestment proceeds for restructuring of PSUs.


The Disinvestment Commission’s recommendations led to some prominent profit making PSUs being declared as “Navratnas” or jewels. These PSUs were granted greater managerial and financial autonomy. However, the process of disinvestment did not pick up as share prices remained largely subdued due to a series of irregularities in the financial markets.


After the NDA government came to power in 1998, the disinvestment process took a new turn with substantial portions of equity in select PSUs sold to strategic partners – marking a transfer of managerial control to private enterprises. The primary focus was on improving efficiency and productivity of PSUs, although much of the disinvestment proceeds were eventually used to bridge the fiscal deficit.


A separate ministry was created and sales were organised through auctions and bids to avoid interference of respective ministries and bypass the stock markets, which continued to be sluggish. Every effort was made to ensure transparency at all stages of the disinvestment process, to avoid controversy and allegations of corruption, usually associated with such sales.

Disinvestment in public sector undertakings:

Year

Target

(Rs. Crore)

Proceeds

(Rs. Crore)

1991-92

2,500

3,038

1992-93

2,500

1,913

1993-94

3,500

-

1994-95

4,000

4,843

1995-96

7,000

362

1996-97

5,000

380

1997-98

4,800

902

1998-99

5,000

5,371

1999-00

10,000

1,860

2000-01

10,000

1,871

2001-02

12,000

5,632#

2002-03

12,000

3,348

2003-04

14,500

15,547

# Figures inclusive of amount realised by way of control premium, dividend/ dividend tax and transfer of surplus cash reserves prior to disinvestment etc.

Source: Ministry of Disinvestment

In the context of corporate governance and efficiency of use of resources in a socialist economy, PSUs are unlikely to be efficient because of soft budget constraints whereby firms do not go bankrupt for their poor performance, primarily because they can restructure their contracts to hide their inefficiency. Managers’ efficiency objectives may also come in conflict with political interference in operational matters, to meet narrow political goals. Even in market economies, large firms of strategic importance may well be protected, to avoid significant systemic risks.


In principle, natural public monopolies such as railways, highways, water, sewage etc. where competition is weak or absent and payback periods are longer – increasing risk and uncertainty for contracting parties – public ownership should prevail. On the other hand, industries driven by rapid changes in technology such as telecom and consumer goods industries should be privatized to meet the twin objectives of financing the fiscal deficit and achieve efficiency and productivity gains. Financially unviable and loss making PSUs should be substantially restructured or closed down with a fair share of the proceeds being offered as compensation to workers.


One of the possible reform measures, practiced in countries like Japan, involves reduction of government holding in PSUs to less than 50 per cent by transferring shares to mutually complementary firms, tied around a public sector bank or financial institution. For example, interlocking of equity holding among steel, coal and electricity firms or petroleum exploration, refining and petrochemical complexes. Such a measure would eliminate both procedural audit as well as regular political interference.


To ensure public accountability, managers may be asked to demonstrate efficiency of resource use. In addition, there could be a specified timeline for budgetary support or government guarantee for loans. Banks would have the incentive to monitor the performance of PSUs because they would have substantial equity and loans at stake.

Share pricing may complicate PSU divestment




The price discovery of the shares of public sector companies are not very efficient in view of the low floating stock. Just a few buy orders can skyrocket their share prices and vice versa.

If wishes were horses, the Indian government could raise up to Rs1.24 trillion by divesting stakes (with the government retaining about 75%) in listed public sector companies with a very low floating stock in the stock bourses. That is, if one only refers to the prevailing share prices as the benchmark for pricing the shares for divestment of government companies.
But this is a simplistic calculation, because the price discovery of the shares of these public sector companies are not very efficient in view of the low floating stock. Just a few buy orders can skyrocket their share prices and vice versa.

For instance on Wednesday, till 1pm just one trade was reported in the BSE at the MMTC counter, a company which trades in metal commodities. The MMTC share price gyrated in a range of Rs25,900 to Rs28,700. The 52-week high-low price band for the MMTC scrip was even more disparate, swinging from a low of Rs9125 to Rs39,090.55.

The market capitalization for the PSU company that reported a net profit of Rs200 crore in financial year 2007-08, was Rs1,40,848 crore with the government owning more than 99.93% of the equity. If 25 % is offered to the public as per the new budget proposal, the government can pocket Rs34,268.32 crore from just one divestment proposal in a metal trading company.
Ditto with NMDC Ltd and NTPC Ltd, where the government owns 98.38% and 89.5%.


Friday, June 19, 2009

Probable Disinvestments post FY10

As the Government is likely to dilute ~10-15% of its stake in companies, the CPSE with 90% or more holding may be the first candidate for disinvestment after OIL, NHPC, MMTC and NMDC.

Below is a list of probable companies that are likely to attract the Government's attention for disinvestment.




Overview
Disinvestment of the Government’s equity stake in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSE) started in FY92, with the sale of minority shareholding in 30 CPSEs to LIC, GIC, and UTI. Later on, MTNL (FY98), VSNL (FY97 and FY99), and GAIL (FY00) used the GDR route to raise capital. Over the years, the policy for disinvestment has evolved, particularly through the budget speeches of Finance Ministers. In December 1999, the Department of Disinvestment was established to focus on all matters related to disinvestment including implementation of disinvestment decisions.

Following are the key objectives behind the Government's disinvestment plans:

  • Decrease the government's restructuring spending to support financially weak CPSEs
  • Induct a strategic investor with a proven record of technical, marketing, and managerial expertise
  • Raise funds
  • Induce operational and financial discipline through investors’ scrutiny

Till date, the Government has raised more than Rs. 510 bn by disinvesting its stakes in companies including IPCL, VSNL, MTNL, CMC, Hindustan Zinc, BALCO, Maruti Udyog, and ITDC.


Current Scenario

The re-elected United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to move decisively on the disinvestment front. As the UPA has a clear mandate and the obstructive left-front is not a part of the government, there are chances of limited political resistance pertaining to disinvestment. Moreover, as the Government’s fiscal deficit is expected to balloon to more than 10% of the GDP for FY10 due to the fiscal stimulus packages, farm-loan waiver, and the pay revision for government employees, the Government is looking at disinvestment as a viable option to improve its finances.


Proposed Disinvestments in FY10

The Government has identified unlisted Oil India Ltd. (OIL) and National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Ltd. (NHPCL) for its disinvestment plans in FY10. These companies are likely to proceed with their IPOs before September 2009 as their regulatory approvals for listing lapse on September 12 and September 15, respectively. According to draft red hearing prospectus, the government may dilute 11% of its stake in OIL and 13.5% stake in NHPCL. Besides, the government has proposed to dilute its stake in Mineral & Metals Trading Corporations (MMTC) and National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) in the current fiscal, according to a preliminary draft of the disinvestment road map prepared by the Finance Ministry.

OIL: Oil India Ltd (OIL) was incorporated on Feb 18, 1959, to expand and develop the oil fields of Naharkatiya and Moran in the north-east of India. In 1981, the Government of India became a wholly-owned stakeholder of OIL by taking over Burmah Oil Company Ltd’s 50% equity stake. OIL is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of crude oil, and production of LPG. OIL’s exploration activities are spread over the onshore areas of Ganga Valley and Mahanadi. OIL also has participating interest in the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) exploration blocks in Mahanadi Offshore, Mumbai Deepwater,


and Krishna Godavari Deepwater, as well as various overseas projects in Libya, Gabon, Iran, Nigeria and Sudan.


Source: Company data

In FY09, OIL produced 3,468 million tonnes of crude oil, 2,268 mmscum of natural gas and 47,610 tones of LPG. The Company’s net sales stood at Rs. 72.41 bn, PAT at Rs. 21.62 bn, and EPS at Rs. 101 for FY09.

NHPC: National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Ltd. (NHPC) was incorporated in 1975. The Company develops hydroelectric power projects. Presently, NHPC is engaged in the construction of 11 projects aggregating to a total installed capacity of 4,622 MW, including 520 MW under implementation by Narmada Hydroelectric Development Corporation (NHDC). The Company has added 1970 MW during the 10th Plan period. NHPC has 10 projects aggregating to a total capacity of 6871 MW that are awaiting clearances/Government approval for their implementation.


Source: Company data


In FY09, the Company’s net sales stood at Rs. 26.72 bn, PAT at 10.4 bn, and EPS at Rs. 0.96.

MMTC: Mineral & Metals Trading Corporations (MMTC) was established in 1963 and is the largest international trading company of India. MMTC trades in non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, tin, asbestos, and nickel, and bullion like gold and silver. Besides, it trades in fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials. Its international trade network spans almost all countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania and the Americas, providing MMTC a wide global market coverage. With its comprehensive infrastructural expertise to handle minerals and metals, the Company provides logistic support including procurement, quality control, and guaranteed timely deliveries from different ports around the world.


Source: Company data

In FY09, the Company’s net sales stood at Rs. 369.04 bn, PAT at Rs. 1.65 bn, and EPS at Rs. 33.08.

NMDC: National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), incorporated in 1958, is engaged in the exploration of a wide range of minerals including iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands. It is India’s single largest iron ore producer and exporter; the Company currently produces 30 million tons of iron ore from three fully-mechanised mines at Bailadila Deposit-14/11C, Bailadila Deposit-5,10/11A, and Donimalai. Because of its excellent chemical and metallurgical properties, the calibrated ore from Bailadila deposits has substituted the iron ore pellets in sponge iron making and hence, became an important raw material for major gas-based sponge iron steel producers like Essar Steel, Ispat Industries and Vikram Ispat. NMDC is also venturing into the development of high-value minerals such as gold and diamond, through joint ventures with companies based in African countries.



Source: Company data

In FY 09, the Company’s net Sales stood at Rs. 75.6 bn, PAT at Rs. 43.7 bn, and EPS at Rs. 11.03.



Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Buyers find PSU stocks attractive on divestment hopes

PSU stocks witnessed targeted buying as market expected fresh Government initiative for divestments.

Of the 45 listed PSU stocks, those with negligible or very small public holding evoked increased interest from the market.

“If the Government plans to sell its stake up to 51per cent in the listed PSUs, the total sale proceeds could be over $95 billion, based on the current market prices of listed PSUs. This works out to about 9.48 per cent of the current GDP,” according to Mr Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head of SMC Capitals.

Mr Saurabh Mukherjee, head of the Indian equity at Noble, said investors have appetite for PSUs, most of which have strong fundamentals and high growth prospects. “But there could be resistance by unions, particularly bank unions, against Government holdings going below 51 per cent. Limited resistance, however, is likely if divestments are restricted to 51 per cent.”

There are several PSUs with Government holding above 75 per cent. But those with holding at 90 per cent and above – such as Hindustan Copper (99.59 per cent), MMTC (99.33 per cent), NMDC (98.38 per cent), Neyveli Lignite (93.56 per cent), Rashtriya Chem & Fertilisers (92.50 per cent), State Trading Corporation (91.02 per cent) and Engineers India (90.40 per cent) – are likely to be considered for divestments in the short term.

NMDC, with the highest market capitalisation among the PSU pack, moved up 4.06 per cent on Tuesday. On weekly terms, however, it is still trailing by 4.78 per cent. It clocked a traded quantity of 2.19 lakh shares on the BSE.

MMTC, thinly traded and priciest among the State-owned companies, continued its appreciation spree and gained 10 per cent to close at Rs 37,229.

Hindustan Copper improved 5 per cent with surge in volume (over one lakh on BSE against fortnightly average of 83,190 shares).

REC gained 6.45 per cent with a BSE volume of over 10 lakh shares. Power Finance Corporation was 2.56 per cent with a traded quantity of 2.58 lakh changing hands on BSE.

NTPC closed marginally down, but its traded volume of over 30 shares were one of highest on the BSE.

Monday, June 1, 2009

The line-up for disinvestment

By now, it is quite clear that the Government does have divestment of its stakes in PSUs high on its agenda for the next few months. That may well allow investors to buy into a whole range of offers from listed as well as new PSUs. Which companies are likely candidates? Here’s a line-up:

The IPOs that may flag off the divestment process may well be NHPC, RITES and Oil India, which have already filed their respective draft prospectuses with SEBI over the past two years.

NHPC: NHPC is the country’s largest hydro power generator, engaged in planning, development and implementation of hydro-electric projects. Based on the offer document, the government stake will come down to 86.3 per cent post-issue. The earnings per share (EPS) for the FY09 is Rs 1.01.

RITES: RITES, under the Ministry of Railways, provides transport infrastructure consultancy, engineering and project management services. The PSU plans a fresh issue, bundled with an offer for sale that may bring down the Government’s stake to 72 per cent. The book value/share and EPS for the year ended FY07 were Rs 133 and Rs 30 respectively.

OIL India: Oil India is engaged in the exploration, development, production and transportation of crude oil and natural gas onshore. The company comes under Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. The Centre’s stake will fall to 89 per cent post-issue. The offer document mentions an EPS of Rs 73.6 for the last financial year.

Long on the stake sale shortlist, the following PSUs are possible candidates which may seek listing through an IPO/offer for sale route.

Coal India is among the largest coal-producing companies in the world and is the only un-listed navaratna PSU (except for HAL, which comes under strategic area). CIL had a turnover of Rs 38631 crore in 2007-08. It is expected to hit the IPO market in near future.

Telecom major, BSNL and steel maker, RINL (Vizag steel), Cochin Shipyard, Telecommunications Consultants India and Manganese Ore are the other likely candidates that may tap the market. These entities have been on the divestment shortlist for quite a while.

Stake dilution is also possible in listed PSUs with a high proportion of government holdings. A 5-10 per cent stake sale in these companies will bring huge gains for the government, even without losing the management control. NMDC, BHEL, NTPC, SAIL, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC, RCF are likely follow-on offer candidates.

At current market prices, a 5 per cent stake sale in NTPC would fetch the government around Rs 8,864 crore. In case of Neyveli Lignite, SAIL, BHEL, MMTC and NMDC, the receipts would be around Rs 1,168 crore, Rs 3,570 crore, Rs 5,321 crore, Rs 6,800 crore and Rs 8,900 crore respectively.

Public sector banks that have a high proportion of government holdings are ripe for a dilution of stake, given their capital needs. While the stake dilution in PSBs will not help the government in terms of receipts, as fresh issues may be needed to bolster the banks’ capital adequacy requirements, it will save the government equity infusion from time to time.

Central Bank of India (80 per cent), Canara Bank (73 per cent), Indian Bank (80 per cent) and Bank of Maharashtra (76 per cent) are banks with high government stake. The unlisted United Bank of India is also considering an IPO in the near future.

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Buoyed by disinvestment hopes

PSU offers in 2007 and 2008 delivered reasonable returns to investors, despite the meltdown that followed. Unlike their private sector peers, even in a bull market, offers for sale or IPOs from public sector companies were priced quite modestly, leaving money on the table for investors.

After being also-rans in the bull market from 2003 to 2007, listed PSUs saw a revival of interest after the 2009 election verdict. The BSE PSU index rose 39.5 per cent post-elections, beating the 24 per cent surge in the BSE-500 and the 20 per cent rally in the Sensex in the same period. Expectations that the UPA Government, unencumbered by objections from the Left parties, will push through stake sales in central PSUs contributed to the rise in stocks of government-owned companies.

Stocks with 92-99 per cent government holdings — such as NMDC, MMTC, RCF and Neyveli Lignite —were among the top gainers, with returns of 45 per cent to 104 per cent. The hope that divestment will get a push under the new UPA regime appears justified on three counts.

Why Divestment?

One, government-funded stimulus measures and a soaring subsidy bill have swelled the fiscal deficit. With the economic slowdown impacting revenue receipts, divestment is clearly one route to raising funds to improve the fiscal picture. The fiscal deficit for the year 2008-09 at a whopping Rs 3,30,000 crore, is 21 per cent of the total market capitalisation of the BSE PSU index.

Though proceeds of duvestment since 2007 have gone into the ‘National Investment Fund’, expectations are that divestment proceeds will now come back into the Budget and help fill the fiscal deficit.

Two, IPOs from unlisted government owned companies could well help revive the IPO market and boost the stock market. Both the Congress manifesto and the interim budget emphasised the need for divestment. PSUs where the government stake is much higher than 51 per cent may be the ones where stake sales will be pushed through first.

Backdrop to divestment

Divestment of stake in central public sector units has netted Rs 53,400 crore since 1991. Though it was the Congress government that first set the ball rolling on disinvestment and privatisation, the trend really gathered pace during the NDA regime (1999-2004). During these years, the government sold stake in as many as 21 Central Government owned companies, raising Rs 28,000 crore.

This government also flagged off divestments through the strategic sale route- sale of a large block of shares in a PSU with transfer of management control to a private sector partner, through a process of competitive bidding. Modern Foods, BALCO, Hindustan Zinc, IPCL and VSNL were divested through this route to Hindustan Unilever, Sterlite Industries, Reliance Industries and the Tata group.

However, the return of a coalition government at the Centre in May 2004 slowed the pace of divestment. There was controversy about whether the earlier strategic sales were made at valuations that were too low.

There were minority stake sales in the last five years amounting to around Rs 8,700 crore. This period saw disinvestments in companies such as NTPC (5.25 per cent of stake, approved by the NDA government), Power Grid Corporation and REC, mainly through the public offer route as well as the private placement of shares of Maruti Udyog limited.

Thus far, 64 per cent of the amounts raised from divestment have come in from sale of minority stakes in companies, while strategic sale and residual sale chipped in with 23 per cent. This suggests that the Congress is likely to lean towards divestment of minority stakes in PSUs through the IPO route, for profit-making CPSUs. However, strategic sales in loss-making companies too may be considered.

The candidates

With only 44 of the 242 operational CPSUs listed, this government may see some big-ticket delisting. The listing candidates may include Coal India, RINL, Manganese Ore, Cochin Shipyard, Air India and BSNL .

In the case of banks, there has been a dilution of government stake due to expansion of capital (fresh issue) by these banks to meet their capital adequacy requirements. But there still appears to be some scope for banks with high government stake to raise capital.

What’s in it for investors?

Stake divestment in PSUs may bolster the government’s finances at a time when it is looking to spend its way out of the slowdown.

But have these shares delivered for investors who bought into the stocks during the offer? An analysis over the past five years shows that they did deliver reasonable returns.

Eight of the 16 public sector units/banks that tapped the IPO market in the last five years out-performed the BSE Sensex. PFC, REC, Power Grid Corporation and Indian Bank are some recent issues that outperformed the indices. It bears mention that the recent crop of PSU offers in 2007 and 2008 delivered reasonable returns to investors, despite the meltdown that followed. Unlike their private sector peers, even in a bull market, offers for sale or IPOs from public sector companies were priced quite modestly, leaving money on the table for investors.

In certain cases, discounts to prevailing market prices have been offered to retail investors. These factors made sure that the majority of PSU stocks divested, even in the bull markets of 2007 or early 2008, still delivered positive returns.

For the companies that tapped the primary market in last few years, the market returns have been mixed, with more recent issues such as Power Grid (70 per cent CAGR against BSE-500’s return of 8 per cent since the time of listing) and Rural Electrification (34 per cent) out-performing the market. However, older issues such as GAIL (17 per cent CAGR since time of offer to retail investors in 2004) and ONGC (16 per cent CAGR) have underperformed the market. NTPC was a market performer from the time of its IPO. Maruti Udyog (Maruti Suzuki) recorded a 40 per cent CAGR from the time of its IPO in 2003.

Financials

What about financials? Does the argument that private ownership bolster efficiency and performance hold good? A study of the financial performance of companies shows that ownership did not make much of a difference to this; whether companies fared better after privatisation depended on sector and macro developments.

Companies such as Hindustan Zinc, IPCL (later merged into Reliance Industries) and CMC did improve their margins and return on equity in the years following divestment.

VSNL, also sold through the strategic sale route, has not registered a material improvement in performance. The loss of VSNL’s monopoly status in its business due to the relaxation of entry barriers, contributed to fall in the company sales in the last few years, leading to drag in margins (net profit margins down to 9 per cent in 2008 from 17 per cent in 2003).

Yet, both Hindustan Zinc and IPCL (later merged) did manage a significant ramp up in profit margins and Return on Equity after they were sold to private owners.

In offers for sale, where the government remained the majority owner, companies such as NTPC, ONGC, GAIL have seen some improvement in the profits and ROE, post-offer but this has little to do with disinvestment. Dredging Corporation and MTNL are the instances where margin and profitability fell owing to a loss of monopoly status.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/05/31/stories/2009053150280700.htm