Will India’s Growth Stocks really grow in the Long Term?

Investors generally classify stocks into two broad categories - value stocks and growth stocks. But we are of the opinion that such a classification exists only in the mind. Value and growth in our opinion, cannot be separated from each other. We believe that they are joined at the hip. However, this discussion is for another article. Here, let us assume that value and growth stocks do in fact exist.

In a fast growing economy like India, most stocks tend to be classified in the 'growth' category. This is especially true for stocks from sectors like auto, infrastructure, telecom, media, financial services, retailing, FMCG, pharma, and realty. Or practically almost all major sectors of the economy!

A lot of companies from these sectors are growing by leaps and bounds. Some have also made their shareholders rich in the past. But will history repeat is questionable! Will all companies from these sectors continue to grow fast in the future? Will these be able to provide good returns to their shareholders in the future?

When you look around at the huge opportunities that the Indian economy presents to companies from these sectors, you might believe that good times will definitely follow them. You might also believe that, you as an investor will end up making tidy profits from them over the long run. These beliefs are given, we think. After all, it's normal to expect good returns from stocks if companies are growing fast.

Right? Probably not!

The thing that matters in the long run in not growth in earnings, but the quality of that growth! A company can grow its earnings by simply cutting its prices and trying to grab a larger market share. A company can also grow its earnings by expanding aggressively using borrowed funds or diluting equity. But whether such a growth is profitable for the investor is doubtful. Of course, it can be a profitable in the short run as the stock might rise on 'expansion' news. But over a long term, a company has to improve the quality of its earnings to be a real rewarding investment for an investor.

Let's now come to what's wrong with India's growth stocks. It's the country's entrepreneurial spirit! Confused?

Well, in simple terms, a growth opportunity in India does not last for long as many new players are quick to enter the fray and be party to that growth story. So you won't have one auto company that will continue to grow and the others in the sector that won't. Or for that matter, one infrastructure company that will bag all orders and won't face any competition.

We are not saying that 'competition' is true only for the Indian economy. We are just talking about the intensity of competition that most growth sector companies face. Be it high competition for new mobile subscribers. Or be it high competition for new small car buyers. Or for that matter, a high competition for the next bank home loan borrower.

In such cases, while companies grow their earnings, most are able to do this only by way of price cuts. And like all price wars, the end result is a lot of blood-shed. Some companies come out stronger from such price wars, but they emerge with such damaged balance sheets that getting into the growth mode again is really difficult.

Given this, should you not buy stocks of growing companies at all? We don't believe so. Identifying the right kind of growth companies - that have competitive advantages over their peers, and are more focused on maintaining the quality of their earnings than market share - is the way to go. It is also to remember that all companies in growing sectors won't fit these criteria. Thus, the search will be difficult.

But if you are able to zero in on a quality opportunity and long term growth in earnings, handsome rewards will come to you in the long term.

So, look around you. Deeply research the opportunities you like at first glance. And invest with conviction in the stocks that you think fulfill the quality criteria as we've discussed above. You never know, you might come face to face with an opportunity like Infosys was in 1993!

How to discover growth stocks

Growth stock hunters believe that there are no excess returns to be gained from investing in the tried and true 'blue chip' stocks representative of a mainstream stock index such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500. The big profits in the stock market rest in ferreting out the next growth stocks, the next Cisco.

For example, Cisco Systems, Inc., now the leading supplier of high-performance internetworking products for linking computer system networks, traded at $4-1/2 per share shortly after going public in 1990 (adjusted for 2-for-1 stock splits in both 1991 and 1992. At the time, Cisco Systems generated less than $30 million in annual revenues. In 1992, the innovative company looks to reach $325 million in revenues and earn around $1.25 per share.

Alert emerging growth investors who discovered Cisco Systems in its formative years and had the conviction to see its tremendous prospects, despite huge competitors such as IBM and NEC Corpora­tion, earned substantially higher returns than the market averages. From a low of $4-1/2 per share in 1990, the market price of Cisco Systems stock had already soared to $52 per share in 1992.

Growth stocks and their subset, emerging growth stocks, are well-managed companies operating in industries where earnings and dividends are expected to grow faster than inflation and the overall economy. They are expected to maintain their exceptional growth momentum through economic retractions as well as during economic prosperity.

Typically, growth stocks are not located in the traditional well-known sectors but in new and upcoming fields, such as computers, telecommunications, health care, and biotechnology.

Major characteristics of growth stocks include:

• Higher price/earnings ratios than the market average,
• Substantial potential for above-average, long-term price appreciation,
• Price volatility, and
• Conservation of capital to fuel growth, therefore little or no dividend payouts in the early years.

For the smaller, emerging growth stocks, price volatility can be even more pronounced due to small capitalization, which makes their shares less liquid; there may be a shortage of available financial and operational information by which to properly judge the company's merits or prospects; investor sentiment swings for large versus small company investments can cause the market price of emerging growth stocks to drop substantially despite rising revenues and earnings and the typical pattern of earnings gains interruptions due to high research and development and expansion expenses can cause investors to flee the stock.

James W. Broadfoot III in his book, Investing in Emerging Growth Stocks: Making Money With Tomorrow's Blue Chips spelt out how to understand emerging growth stock investing and learn how to pick the right emerging growth stocks for above average returns.

Obviously, the higher returns associated with emerging growth investments also carry with them a higher degree of risk. That's why Broadfoot stressed that investors planning to enter this brand of in­vesting must have a stomach for risk, financial staying power since emerging growth stocks go through cycles of poor performance, and the ability to make a sufficient commitment of time and effort.

Emerging growth stock, screening standards set forth by Broadfoot include the following:

• Avoid companies with two down earning years in the past five
• Choose companies with a minimum average 20 per cent revenue and earnings growth
• Avoid any firm with return on average equity below 13 per cent
• Avoid firms with debt in excess of 30 percent of total capital.

If the firm passes the above tests, consider the growth prospects of the industry (including the degree of industry fragmentation), the level of competition, and the quality of management.

Broadfoot warned about stumbling blocks to the company's success and higher stock prices. A lack of visibility, lengthening sales cycles, and new product dependence can each work to short-circuit the company's potential. In addition, too rapid a growth can wreak havoc with financial and operational controls, causing the company to stumble.

As a warning, Broadfoot said that when emerging growth companies run into trouble, such as a significant earnings shortfall, sell as fast as possible and ask questions later.

Finally, be patient. Emerging growth investing profits don't occur overnight. When you do hit upon a winner, ride it for all its worth; you need the exceptional gains from your growth stock winners to make up for the mistakes that come with the emerging growth investing territory.