Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Markets Climb a Wall of Worry

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/03/28/JTBULLMARKET_big.jpg

The Sensex has returned about 18.62 % compounded annual return over the past 27 years in spite of:
  • 1 War (With Pakistan – Kargil 1999).

  • Increasing Terrorism and threats to Internal Security (Punjab, J&K, Assam , Naxalite problem in Bihar & other parts of India).

  • 2 Major financial scandals and a number of minor ones (Harshad Mehta, Ketan Pareikh, C.R. Bhansali,Sanjay Agarwal etc).

  • 2 assassinations of Prime ministers (Indira Gandhi & Rajiv Gandhi).

  • Number of communal riots (Ayodhya, Godhra - They keep happening with immaculate consistency).

  • More then 11 different Governments perusing different manifestos and putting all of them under a common banner titled Common Minimum Program..

  • Poor Monsoons on more then 3 to 4 occasions.Each year the market speculates as to how the Monsoons have hit the coast of Kerala but over alonger period of time they do not matter. More so with increasing irrigation systems and development our dependence on monsons will come down further.

  • Mortgage of Gold to tide over the foreign exchange crisis (In 1991 the Indian Govt. mortgaged Gold to the Bank of England).

  • Coalition governments have governed major portion of the last 25 years.

  • Numerous number of natural calamities and disasters (Tsunami 2004, Gujarat Earthquake 2001, Surat Plague 1995).

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