Fast-moving consumer companies are fast-moving stocks in bourses too

Long considered as ‘defensive’ stocks meant to be held only as a cushion during a market collapse, FMCG companies are charting phenomenal growth and their stocks prices are keeping pace

It is common perception that stocks of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are defensive stocks. They often take a backseat to the more fancied and hyped growth stocks like software, automobiles or media. It is believed that these stocks should only be considered as a defence mechanism during bear phases. When the broader market is down, these stocks hold their ground reasonably well, offering stability to the portfolio while other stocks take a beating.
Well, the 'stability' logic still holds water. FMCG products, by their very nature, are essential for the daily requirements of all households-be it detergents, soaps, toothpaste etc. Demand for such bare essentials remains steady even during economic downturns. That is why these companies witness steady growth even when other industries are reeling from the consequences of a slowdown.

But, for years now, the performance of FMCG stocks has been far from defensive. It is time that FMCG stocks are stripped off this oft-repeated and generalised 'defensive' tag. Like their products, the stocks are fast-moving as well. Many of the stocks have surged to new all-time highs, outperforming the broader market indices handsomely.

Companies like ITC, Dabur, Godrej Consumer Products, Nestle and GSK Healthcare have performed quite well over the past five years. As a result, their stock prices have also exhibited phenomenal growth. In 2003, ITC was Rs40. Currently it is trading at Rs291. In 2006, GSPL was trading at Rs27 and now finds itself at Rs99. Similarly, Dabur and Nestle were trading at Rs12 and Rs500 in 2003-they are now trading at Rs192 and Rs2,811 respectively. GSK Healthcare, which is now trading at Rs1,655, was trading at Rs201 in 2003.

In the last quarter of the previous financial year the results have been especially great. While the Sensex has fallen by 2% between 4 January 2010 and 4 June 2010, the FMCG index has risen by a healthy 10%. Other sectoral indices like auto, banking and software have only risen by 6%, 7% and 2% respectively during this period. The future looks as bright. A KR Choksey report on the FMCG sector states, "We expect FMCG companies to continue their growth story with improvement in the overall economic scenario and consumer spending. With a likely normal monsoon as is expected by most experts, which would help cool off inflation, it will result in improvement in margins for all companies. Also, normal monsoons would increase the disposable income for rural consumers, giving them scope for more spending on consumer goods."

An Anand Rathi research report confirms, "With falling food inflation and a normal monsoon expected, we expect consumer companies to maintain the revenue growth tempo. However, we anticipate mounting competition to crop pricing power. With the fall in price of crude and lower raw material prices, margins would hold steady." According to KR Choksey, companies with a more diversified portfolio-both product-wise & geography-wise-would benefit more. This would include Nestle, GCPL, Tata Tea and Colgate.

Here is a brief look at the recent performance of some of the top FMCG companies. ITC reported a strong net profit growth of 27% y-o-y on the back of strong revenue growth in cigarettes, agri-business and FMCG businesses.

Revenues surged 30% while EBITDA increased by 25% y-o-y. The stock has reflected the strong growth momentum, surging 15% since its January opening.
Godrej Consumer Products Limited's (GCPL) revenues soared 48% on the back of robust growth in both domestic and international operations. Net profit jumped a phenomenal 55% while EBITDA also surged 52% y-o-y. GCPL's share price has also taken off, rising by 15% since January 2010.

Dabur is not far behind the growth curve either. Dabur's acquisition of Fem Care and strong volume growth boosted its top-line, which witnessed a 17% rise in the financial year 2009-10. Its EBITDA also expanded by 28% due to lower input costs. Dabur's stock has seen a 20% jump since January.

GSK Healthcare has also reported good numbers for the previous financial year. Strong volume growth in biscuits and nutrition supplements and improved realisations boosted its top-line by 20% while net profit rose by 15% y-o-y. Its stock price has surged 26% since January.